Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat?

Analysis

Seven of eight agents converge strongly on 93-96% probability. Agent 1 (50%) clearly failed its research (0 pages read) and should be discarded entirely. Excluding that outlier, the effective ensemble mean is ~94.6% with very tight agreement. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent across all functioning agents: R+14 PVI, 30-point victory margins, Solid R rating from Cook, 7 consecutive Republican wins including wave years, no serious Democratic challenger. The only downside risks are theoretical (scandal, redistricting, midterm wave) but even the worst-case midterm scenario wouldn't flip an R+14 district — historically, districts this red essentially never flip. The market at 91% is actually slightly below where the evidence points. However, the edge (94% vs 91% = ~3%) is below the 5% threshold for a trade recommendation. The market is pricing this correctly within a reasonable range. Even though I'm confident the true probability is slightly higher than 91%, the edge is too small to justify a trade given transaction costs and the small absolute difference.

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