Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat?

Analysis

All 8 agents converge tightly on 94-99% probability (mean 96.5%, std dev 1.4%), representing near-perfect consensus. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent across all agents: R+30 PVI, 70.8% vote share in 2024, Solid R rating from Cook, no primary challenger, weak Democratic field. The only disagreements are minor calibration differences about how much tail risk to assign to black swan events. Agent 3 (Gemini) at 99% may slightly underweight tail risk given 8+ months remaining, while Agent 7 (Kimi) at 94% may slightly overweight first-term incumbent risk in a district this red. The ensemble mean of 96.5% is well-calibrated. The market at 93.5% likely reflects standard market friction and the small but nonzero probability of extraordinary events over 8 months. My estimate of 96% represents ~2.5% edge over market price. However, this falls below the 5% edge threshold for a TRADE recommendation. While the evidence is extremely strong and specific, the potential profit on a YES trade at 93.5% is modest, and the market is already pricing this correctly within a reasonable uncertainty band. The edge is real but not large enough to justify a trade given transaction costs and the long time horizon.

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