US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously assign 99% probability. The event has already occurred: US-Iran nuclear talks resumed on February 6, 2026 in Oman, with a second round February 17-19 in Geneva and a third round scheduled for February 26-27. Official representatives (Iranian FM Araghchi, US envoy Witkoff) participated in nuclear-focused discussions. Multiple independent credible sources confirm this. The market is priced at 100%, and the ensemble mean is 99%. The 1% residual accounts for theoretical edge cases (market operator interpretation quirks, mass reporting errors) that are vanishingly unlikely. There is no actionable edge here - buying YES at 100% offers zero profit, and there is no rational basis to sell NO. This is a clear SKIP despite the near-certainty of YES resolution.

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