Another Canada election called by June 30?

Analysis

Excluding the failed Agent 1 (50%), the remaining 7 agents cluster tightly between 15-22% with median 17%. The corrected ensemble mean (~17.7%) is extremely close to market price (16.5%), leaving no actionable edge. All agents agree on the key facts: explicit PM denial, functioning Parliament, viable non-election path to majority, and narrow time window. The 2021 Trudeau snap election backlash precedent further deters this. While minority governments do produce early elections historically, the specific June 30 deadline, Carney's denial, and the byelection alternative make this unlikely in the near term. No edge exceeding 5% exists to justify a trade.

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