Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

Analysis

Seven of eight agents estimate 12-32% (mean ~19%), with strong consensus on key facts: multiple failed attempts, active leadership opposition, $1.1B revenue barrier, 5-15% historical base rate, and no committee action on any repeal bill. The outlier (Agent 2 at 41%) relies on theoretical industry influence arguments contradicted by observed legislative failures. The market at 49% is dramatically overpriced relative to evidence. Polymarket prices this at ~25%, validating the ensemble range. The strict resolution criteria (full repeal only, no modifications) further reduces probability. I'm pulling slightly below the ensemble mean toward the 12% cluster because the agents with the most specific, verifiable evidence (Agents 5, 6, 8) all converged at 12%, and the concrete track record of blocked attempts is the strongest signal. Edge of ~34 percentage points against market price is substantial and well-supported.

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