Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Analysis

Agents are fundamentally split: low-end agents (32-45%) overweight unprecedented political dynamics and DOJ backfire narrative; high-end agents (68-72%) appropriately weight the strong historical base rate but may underweight genuine uncertainty. The ensemble mean of 56% is an artifact of averaging divergent views rather than a consensus estimate. The median (61.5%) is more informative. I pull toward market price because: (1) the Dec 31 deadline is generous — even if Powell stays initially, he could leave later; (2) the historical base rate is genuinely powerful; (3) I cannot articulate a strong specific reason the market is wrong beyond 'this time is different.' However, the edge (75.5% vs 67%) is marginal given extreme uncertainty (agent confidence averaging ~0.50), and agents fundamentally disagree without resolution. SKIP is appropriate.

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