Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Analysis

Agents split into two camps: those weighting historical norms (62-68%) and those weighting unprecedented circumstances (15-40%). The strongest evidence comes from Agents 5, 6, 7, and 8 who identified specific, verifiable blockers: (1) Warsh not formally nominated as of Feb 27, (2) Sen. Tillis blocking confirmation, (3) Senate Democrats also blocking, (4) only 32% Kalshi odds of confirmation before May 1, (5) multiple named analysts shifting toward Powell staying. Agent 2's 68% estimate relies too heavily on historical base rates without adequately accounting for the confirmation blockade — if Warsh isn't confirmed, Powell MUST stay as holdover Chair. The May 30 deadline is only 15 days after Chair term expiry, making this extremely tight even in best-case scenarios. I estimate ~30% chance Warsh confirmed before May 15, and conditional on that ~70% Powell leaves Board (historical norm), plus ~5% for other scenarios = ~26%. Adding uncertainty and pulling slightly toward market = 35%. Edge of ~30% against market price of 65.5% with moderate confidence.

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