Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Analysis

Seven of eight informed agents cluster tightly at 18-28% (mean ~23%), with the 50% outlier having failed research. The structural case for NO is strong: no viable no-confidence path exists, Sánchez has stated intent to serve until 2027, smaller parties have no incentive to trigger elections they'd lose, and even snap elections leave him as caretaker PM. While corruption scandals and legislative paralysis create real pressure, they haven't produced a removal mechanism. My estimate of 22% is ~4 points below market price of 26%, but this edge is below the 5% threshold for a confident trade. The evidence is strong but the market is already pricing in most of the structural barriers. The YES=20% toxic bucket warning also applies — this is in the historically unprofitable 15-25% range where taking positions is risky.

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