Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?

Analysis

Six of seven substantive agents estimate 5-28%, with the strongest-evidence agents (3, 5, 6, 7) clustering at 5-18%. The key facts are verifiable and consistent: 87.4% leadership review win, no challenger, explicit refusal to resign, strong base support (+70 net favorability among CPC voters), and only 10 months remaining. The 67% historical base rate for defeated Conservative leaders departing is misleading here because Poilievre's structural position is much stronger than predecessors (won popular vote, gained seats, crushed the review). The O'Toole comparison is the strongest bull case but fails on specifics: O'Toole had only 73% review support, weaker election results, and faced organized opposition. The market at 31% appears to overweight dramatic scenarios. A 14% edge on NO with strong, specific evidence supports a trade.

View on Polymarket