Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree the primary risk is health/mortality, not political removal. The disagreement is only on magnitude. The strongest agents (1, 4, 5, 8) properly anchor on actuarial data showing ~13-14% mortality over the remaining period, then add small adjustments. Agents 6 and 7 appear to over-weight speculative health concerns without specific evidence of deterioration. The sibling market at 19% for June 30 provides a useful cross-check — implying the market sees roughly equal risk in each half of the year, consistent with constant mortality hazard. My estimate of 25% accounts for actuarial baseline (~15-16% adjusted for health history), plus ~2% political risk, plus ~7% for health opacity/unknown unknowns. The market at 38.5% appears to overprice by ~13 points, providing sufficient edge for a TRADE_NO recommendation, though confidence is moderate given the genuine health uncertainty for a 90-year-old.

Key Evidence

Actuarial mortality for 90-year-old male over 9.5 months is ~13-14%, and political removal probability is near-zero given Abbas controls security apparatus and no mechanism exists to force him out. He remains actively governing as of March 9, 2026.

Risks

Abbas's true health status may be significantly worse than publicly reported; PA health communications are opaque and potentially unreliable. A sudden stroke or cardiac event could resolve this YES with no warning.

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