Maduro guilty of all counts?

Analysis

Informed agents (2-5) cluster at 27-35%, while less-researched agents (1, 6, 8) push higher. Agent 1 had zero research and should be discarded. The core tension is between high federal conviction rates and the 'all counts' + timeline constraints. Hernandez all-counts SDNY conviction supports YES; Noriega partial conviction and tight timeline support NO. My estimate of 33% is slightly below market (35.5%) but the edge of ~2.5% is far below the 5% threshold needed for a trade. The resolution criteria are clear but the outcome is genuinely uncertain, driven primarily by whether the trial completes in time and whether the jury convicts on all 4 counts rather than 3.

Key Evidence

Maduro in custody with trial feasible by late 2027 (Hernandez took 22 months), but 'all counts' requirement is a high bar (Noriega convicted 8/10, not all) and timeline is tight with complex pretrial motions pending

Risks

Agent 7's claim that only 22% of federal trials result in all-counts conviction is unverified — if accurate, probability should be lower; if inaccurate (likely for 4-count cases), probability could be higher

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