Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Analysis

Five agents defaulted to 50% with zero confidence, polluting the ensemble. Among agents with actual estimates, the evidence-grounded ones (Agents 4, 8) correctly note the extreme rarity of secession referendums and absence of current campaigns. Higher estimates appear speculative without identifying a specific province or triggering mechanism. The market at 49% seems inflated - possibly driven by general anxiety about Canadian unity rather than concrete referendum prospects. Even with elevated Western alienation, the gap between political sentiment and formally scheduling a referendum is enormous. My 25% estimate accounts for genuine tail risk from unprecedented political dynamics while respecting the strong base rate evidence. Edge of ~24% against market price is substantial but warranted given fundamentals.

Key Evidence

Zero secession referendums scheduled in Canadian history outside Quebec (2 total in 157 years), no provincial government currently pursuing one, no active referendum campaign exists, and the Clarity Act creates significant procedural barriers. 18 months is very short to go from no campaign to scheduled referendum.

Risks

Rapidly escalating US-Canada trade tensions or a political crisis (e.g., Alberta energy disputes) could accelerate separatist movements faster than historical precedent suggests. Market may be pricing in information about current political dynamics not fully captured in base rates.

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