Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
| Predicted at | 2026-03-15 08:21 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 98.7% |
| Market (at prediction) | 100.0% |
Analysis
6 of 8 informed agents agree the market has already resolved YES. Agent 1 had a research failure (0 searches) and should be discarded. Agent 7 acknowledged their estimate would be much higher if the market already resolved, which it has. The ensemble mean of 80.25% is dragged down by these two outlier agents and is not representative. The true consensus among informed agents is 97-99%. However, with the market at 100% and my estimate at 98%, there is no actionable edge - buying YES at 100% has zero upside and only downside risk, while selling NO has negligible expected value. SKIP is the correct recommendation despite high confidence in the YES outcome.
Key Evidence
Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle ~January 29, 2026, has been at 100% for 6+ weeks with no active dispute process found. Tesla launched robotaxi rides in Austin January 22, 2026 without in-car safety monitor.
Risks
Theoretical possibility of UMA oracle dispute reversal, though no evidence any such process is active or likely
Timestamped via OpenTimestamps (pending Bitcoin confirmation)
SHA-256: 358925e734eca64a98d1e60084f0c45f79dc5f3cf904673ac48a045952a8e0f8
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