Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Analysis

Six of eight agents cluster at 46-51% with two outliers at 56-58%. The median (48%) better represents informed opinion than the mean (50.1%). Key tension: Ohio's hard structural R+11 lean and Brown's recent 2024 loss vs. favorable midterm dynamics and current polling leads. The structural lean is more predictive than polls 8 months out. Critically, the Republican sibling market at 57% implies Democrat probability around 43-48%, suggesting the 52% Democrat price is slightly overpriced. However, the edge (52% market vs 48% estimate = 4%) is below the 5% threshold for trading, and with 8 months of uncertainty remaining and agents genuinely split on weighting, this is a SKIP. Agents 2, 3, and 5 had the strongest evidence bases and all landed at 47-48%.

Key Evidence

Ohio structural R+11 lean and Brown's 2024 loss by 3.5pts offset by favorable midterm environment and Brown leading 2/3 recent polls; Republican sibling market at 57% implies Dem probability closer to 43-48%

Risks

National environment could shift dramatically in 8 months; Iran war resolution or economic changes could move this 10+ points either direction; also the Republican sibling market pricing suggests Democrat side is overpriced

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