Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: Tesla launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin on January 22, 2026, the UMA oracle resolved the market YES around January 29, 2026, and the market has been at 100% for 7+ weeks. The slight variation in estimates (95-99%) comes from Agent 7 giving more weight to the substantive controversy about whether Tesla's service truly qualifies as 'unsupervised' given chase cars and Level 2 ADAS filings. However, this is irrelevant to the market outcome since the oracle has already resolved. The community discussion confirms widespread dissatisfaction with the resolution but no active reversal mechanism. The market is correctly priced at 100% for a resolved market. There is no edge to trade - buying YES at 100% yields no profit, and selling NO against a finalized oracle resolution would be extremely risky with essentially zero expected value. The ensemble mean of 98% is slightly conservative given the market has already resolved, but the 1-2% haircut agents apply for theoretical reversal risk is reasonable. SKIP because there is zero edge available at 100% market price.

Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026. Price has been at 100% for 7+ weeks with no active dispute process. Resolution is final.

Risks

Theoretical possibility of extraordinary platform intervention to reverse a finalized UMA oracle resolution, though no evidence of this occurring or being attempted.

View on Polymarket