Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree on core facts but differ on weighting. Agent 7 (20%) found the strongest specific evidence - the limitation clause was removed from the updated plan and language shifted from 'limits' to 'remains/maintains.' The ensemble mean of 30% is inflated by Agents 4 and 5 (35-38%) who overweight private draft agreements without sufficiently discounting the public commitment requirement. The chained probability through a peace deal path yields ~15-20%, with alternative paths adding ~5-10%. My estimate of 24% is slightly below market (26%) but within noise. Edge of ~2% is far below the 5% threshold needed to trade. The resolution criteria requiring PUBLIC agreement to LIMIT (not just maintain) forces is a high bar that current evidence suggests is unlikely to be met given paused talks, Russian non-acceptance, and semantic reframing by Ukrainian leadership.

Key Evidence

Peace talks paused with no resumption date; limitation clause reportedly removed from updated plan; Zelensky reframed 800K from 'limit' to 'maintain'; only ~35% ceasefire probability by end 2026 and force cap requires even more than ceasefire

Risks

Market operator could interpret Zelensky's existing public statements about 800,000 as already qualifying for resolution, which would make YES much more likely

View on Polymarket