U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously estimate 99% probability. The evidence is overwhelming and independently verified across dozens of authoritative sources: the 2026 Iran War began on February 28, 2026 with coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Iran has retaliated against US military bases, US service members have been killed, and the conflict is ongoing as of March 19, 2026. This clearly and unambiguously meets the market's definition of 'military engagement' (missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement). The 1% residual is appropriate for extreme tail risks like market resolution technicalities. However, the market is priced at 100% and my estimate is 99%, meaning there is effectively zero edge (and technically a tiny edge toward NO which would be absurd to trade). The sibling market for March 31 at 32% is puzzling but likely reflects a different resolution mechanism or timing issue, not substantive doubt about whether engagement occurred. SKIP because there is no tradeable edge - the market has already priced in the certainty of this outcome.

Key Evidence

The 2026 Iran War began February 28, 2026 with US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran. This is confirmed by every major news source (Reuters, CNN, Wikipedia, NPR, Al Jazeera, Britannica, ISW). US has conducted thousands of strikes on Iranian territory, Iran has retaliated against US bases, US service members have been killed. The event has already definitively occurred.

Risks

Market is already at 100% so there is zero edge despite near-certainty of YES resolution. The only risk is a bizarre market resolution technicality.

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