Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree this market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle around January 29, 2026, following Tesla's January 22, 2026 unsupervised robotaxi launch in Austin. The market has been at 100% for over 7 weeks. The only disagreement is minor - Agent 7 at 90% appears to have not fully weighted the fact that the market is already resolved, while the other 7 agents are at 97-99%. The community controversy about whether Tesla's offering truly qualifies as 'unsupervised' (chase cars, remote operators, limited scale) is irrelevant to the market outcome since the UMA oracle has already finalized the YES resolution and the dispute window has long closed. The market is priced at 100% and the true probability is ~99% (leaving 1% for some unprecedented platform intervention). There is no edge to trade - buying YES at 100% offers zero upside, and selling NO against an already-resolved market is essentially burning money. The ensemble mean of 97.6% is slightly low due to Agent 7's 90% estimate dragging it down, but the practical conclusion is the same: no trade opportunity exists.

Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026 based on Tesla's January 22 Austin robotaxi launch. Price has been at 100% for 7+ weeks with no active dispute. Resolution is final.

Risks

Theoretically unprecedented UMA oracle reversal, but no evidence any such process exists or is underway

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