Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree this market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle on ~January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 launch of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The range of estimates (97-99%) reflects only minor disagreement about the infinitesimal probability of an unprecedented UMA oracle reversal. Agent 8 provided the most balanced evidence noting chase cars and limited deployment, but even they concluded at 98%. The community complaints are from losing NO bettors, not from any formal dispute mechanism. The market has been at 100% for 7+ weeks - this is a resolved market. My probability of 99% (not 100% only because no event is truly certain until the final resolution date passes) aligns with the ensemble. However, with the market at 100%, there is zero edge to capture - buying YES at 100% yields no profit, and selling NO against an already-resolved market is reckless. SKIP is the only rational recommendation regardless of conviction level.

Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, after Tesla launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin on January 22, 2026. Price has been stable at 100% for 7+ weeks with no active dispute process.

Risks

Theoretical UMA oracle reversal, though no evidence of active dispute after 7+ weeks makes this essentially negligible

View on Polymarket