U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously estimate 99% probability. The evidence is overwhelming: a full-scale U.S.-Iran war began on February 28, 2026, with U.S. kinetic strikes on Iranian territory and Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on U.S. bases across multiple countries. This clearly meets the market's definition of 'military engagement involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces.' The market is priced at 100% and has been for at least 7 days. However, I recommend SKIP because: (1) the market is already at 100%, meaning there is zero edge for buying YES, and (2) the anomalous 32% pricing on the sibling March 31 market introduces a non-trivial risk that market resolution mechanics could produce a surprising outcome despite the obvious real-world events. With the market at 100% and my estimate at 99%, there is no profitable trade available — buying YES at 100% has zero upside and small downside risk from resolution technicalities.

Key Evidence

U.S.-Iran war began February 28, 2026 with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory; Iran retaliated with missile strikes on U.S. bases. Confirmed by Wikipedia, Reuters, CNN, ISW, White House, CENTCOM, and dozens of other authoritative sources. The event has already occurred.

Risks

The sibling market (U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026) is priced at only 32%, which is deeply anomalous. This could indicate a resolution criteria technicality — possibly the market requires specific conditions beyond what has occurred (e.g., the community discussion mentions intercepted missiles/drones don't count, and there may be stricter definitions around 'direct engagement between US and Iranian military forces' vs. U.S. strikes on Iranian territory). The 'whales have the final say' comment also suggests potential for subjective resolution.

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