Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

7 out of 8 agents (all except Agent 4) converge on 97-99% probability, recognizing that this market has ALREADY RESOLVED YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026. The resolution was based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 announcement of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The market has been at 100% for 7+ weeks with no active dispute.

Agent 4 (3%) is a clear outlier that appears to have conducted research on the underlying question of whether Tesla truly launched unsupervised FSD, rather than recognizing that the market has already been resolved by the oracle. Agent 4 found legitimate evidence that Tesla's FSD is still labeled 'Supervised' in software updates and that NHTSA has concerns - but this is irrelevant to the market outcome since the UMA oracle has already finalized its YES resolution.

The ensemble mean of 86.4% is an artifact of Agent 4's extreme outlier dragging down an otherwise near-unanimous consensus. The median of 98.5% is far more representative.

Key controversy: There is legitimate debate about whether Tesla's Austin launch truly qualifies as 'unsupervised' (chase cars, 0/42 rides truly unsupervised per Electrek investigation). Community is furious. However, this is irrelevant to market resolution - the UMA oracle has spoken, the dispute window closed, and Polymarket has no mechanism to reverse finalized resolutions.

At 100% market price, there is no edge to trade. The probability is ~99% (leaving 1% for truly unprecedented platform intervention), but buying at 100% offers zero upside. SKIP is the correct recommendation - no profitable trade exists regardless of how confident we are in the resolution.

Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, and has been at 100% for 7+ weeks. The dispute window has closed, making the resolution final. No mechanism exists to reverse it.

Risks

Theoretically unprecedented platform intervention to reverse a finalized UMA oracle resolution, but no evidence this is being pursued or is even possible.

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