Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Analysis

All substantive agents agree on the directional case for Democrats (historical patterns, low Trump approval, unpopular war) but also agree the 2.5-year time horizon severely limits confidence. The ensemble mean of 56.5% exactly matches the market price, and removing the failed agent and outlier barely changes it (56.2%). Agent 7 explicitly would bet Republican at this price, while Agents 2-6 cluster at 57-58% - barely above market. No agent produced evidence suggesting a significant mispricing. The strongest agents (3, 4, 6) all assigned very low confidence (0.30-0.35) despite finding compelling current evidence, precisely because the time horizon is so long. With no edge over market price and enormous residual uncertainty, this is a clear SKIP.

Key Evidence

Historical two-term fatigue (78% out-party win rate) and Trump's record-low approval (-21 net, -43 among independents) favor Democrats, but 2.5-year horizon and fragmented Democratic field create massive uncertainty

Risks

Iran war resolution timeline - a quick favorable resolution could dramatically shift fundamentals toward Republicans, and we have no way to predict this

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