Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Analysis

7 out of 8 agents independently arrived at 99% probability, with the 8th agent (Agent 8) producing an incomplete/failed analysis at 50% with 0 confidence - this is clearly a data artifact and should be discarded. The remaining 7 agents found identical evidence: Khamenei was killed Feb 28, 2026 in US-Israeli strikes, confirmed by Iranian state media, multiple international outlets, and the White House. A successor (Mojtaba Khamenei) was formally installed March 9, 2026. This event has already occurred and is universally confirmed. The ensemble mean of 92.88% is artificially dragged down by Agent 8's failed 50% estimate - the true consensus is 99%. The market at 100% is correct. However, since the market is already priced at 100%, there is zero edge available on either side. Buying YES at 100% offers no profit, and selling NO against a confirmed event would be irrational. SKIP is the only rational recommendation despite extremely high confidence in the outcome.

Key Evidence

Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, confirmed by Iranian state media, BBC, Reuters, CNN, Al Jazeera, NPR, White House, and multiple other independent sources. His son Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as successor on March 9, 2026.

Risks

Market is already at 100% so there is no edge to capture despite near-certainty of YES resolution

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