Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
| Predicted at | 2026-03-23 08:37 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 99.2% |
| Market (at prediction) | 100.0% |
Analysis
7 of 8 agents (excluding the failed Agent 8 and the outlier Agent 7) converge on 97-99% probability. The critical finding is that this market has ALREADY RESOLVED YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 announcement of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The dispute window has closed, making the resolution final. The market has been at exactly 100% for 7+ consecutive weeks.
Agent 7 (10%) clearly missed the most important fact - that the market has already resolved. It analyzed the question as if it were still open, focusing on whether Tesla would launch consumer unsupervised FSD in the remaining 8 days. This is a fundamental research failure; the agent didn't discover the UMA oracle resolution. Agent 8 (50%) had an incomplete research process and should be disregarded.
The ensemble mean of 81.25% is an artifact of averaging these two outlier/failed agents with the six well-researched agents. The median of 98% is far more representative.
The community discussion confirms the resolution happened (users are angry about it, calling it a 'scam'), which paradoxically reinforces that YES resolution is final. There is legitimate debate about whether Tesla's launch truly qualified as 'unsupervised' (chase cars, limited scope, rides vanishing within a week), but this is irrelevant to market resolution since the UMA oracle has finalized.
With the market at 100% and my estimate at 99%, there is no actionable edge. The market is correctly priced for a resolved outcome. SKIP because there is essentially zero edge and no trading opportunity.
Key Evidence
Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, dispute window closed 7+ weeks ago, price has been at 100% continuously since then. Resolution is final and irreversible.
Risks
Theoretically unprecedented platform intervention to reverse a finalized UMA oracle resolution, but no evidence this mechanism exists or is being pursued.
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