Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

7 of 8 agents converge on 99% probability. The market has already resolved YES via the UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 launch of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The dispute window has closed and the resolution is final. The market has been at 100% for 7+ weeks. Agent 6 (Grok) is the sole outlier at 1%, apparently ignoring the critical fact that the market has already formally resolved - it focused on whether Tesla 'truly' launched unsupervised FSD rather than on the market mechanics. Agent 1 (GPT-5.2) failed to complete research. The community complaints about 'scam' reflect disagreement with the oracle's interpretation (particularly regarding chase cars), not uncertainty about whether the market resolved. The Electrek investigation finding 0/42 rides truly unsupervised is interesting but irrelevant - the UMA oracle already ruled, the dispute window closed, and Polymarket has no mechanism to reverse finalized resolutions. The ensemble mean of 80.6% is dragged down by Agent 6's 1% and Agent 1's uninformed 50% - the median of 99% is far more representative. At 100% market price vs 99% estimate, there is no actionable edge. SKIP because buying YES at 100% offers zero upside, and the tiny theoretical risk of platform intervention doesn't justify selling NO.

Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026. Dispute window closed. Price has been 100% for 7+ weeks with no mechanism to reverse.

Risks

Unprecedented Polymarket platform intervention to reverse a finalized UMA resolution - extremely unlikely but theoretically possible

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