Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

7 out of 8 agents (all except Agent 1, which failed to complete research) converge on 98-99% probability. The key finding is unanimous among functioning agents: this market has ALREADY RESOLVED YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22 announcement of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The dispute window closed weeks ago. The market has been at exactly 100% for 7+ consecutive weeks. Agent 7 (90%) appears to have partially missed the resolution finality angle, focusing more on whether Tesla truly launched unsupervised FSD rather than whether the market resolution is final. Agent 1 (50%) had a research failure and produced no useful data. The real question is not whether Tesla launched unsupervised FSD (debatable - Electrek found 0/42 rides truly unsupervised), but whether the finalized UMA oracle resolution will stand. All evidence says yes - there is no known mechanism to reverse it. The market is priced at 100%, my estimate is 99%, giving essentially zero edge. Even at 99% vs 100%, the edge is only 1% which is far below the 5% threshold needed to trade. SKIP is the clear recommendation - there is no profitable trade here.

Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026. Dispute window closed ~2 months ago. No mechanism exists to reverse finalized UMA oracle resolutions on Polymarket.

Risks

Theoretical unprecedented platform intervention due to community outrage, but no evidence this has ever happened or is being considered

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