Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Analysis

7/8 agents cluster between 20-26%, with strong consensus that Rodríguez is consolidating power effectively in the near term. The strongest evidence (Agents 1-3) shows military loyalty, US cooperation, PSUV institutional control, and no credible threats. However, the 9-month window to December 2026 includes the constitutional deadline, potential US policy shifts, and ongoing internal balancing challenges. Agent 6 at 12% underweights these medium-term risks; Agent 8 at 32% overweights the indictment threat. The ensemble mean of 22.2% vs market price of 25.5% yields only ~2.5% edge - well below the 5% threshold for trading. The YES=20% toxic bucket warning applies here. Evidence is solid but the edge is insufficient to justify a trade.

Key Evidence

Rodríguez actively consolidating power with military loyalty, US diplomatic recognition and cooperation, but faces constitutional deadline in July/August 2026 and US indictment leverage creating medium-term uncertainty

Risks

Constitutional 180-day acting period expiring July/August 2026 could force a transition crisis; US policy could shift dramatically with midterms or if compliance stalls

View on Polymarket