Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred - Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in confirmed US-Israeli airstrikes. This is verified by Iranian state media, multiple independent international news organizations, US and Israeli officials, and a successor has already been appointed. The market has been at 100% for at least 7 consecutive days. The evidence is as strong as it gets - the resolution event has already happened. However, the market is priced at 100% and my estimate is 99% (the 1% accounts for the infinitesimal possibility of coordinated misinformation, though this is essentially impossible given source diversity including Iranian state media confirmation). There is zero edge to trade here - buying YES at 100% offers no profit, and selling NO against overwhelming confirmed evidence would be irrational. SKIP is the only rational recommendation despite high confidence in the outcome.

Key Evidence

Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, confirmed by all major international news outlets (Reuters, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera), Iranian state media, and US/Israeli officials. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed March 8, 2026.

Risks

Market is already at 100% so there is no edge to capture despite near-certainty of YES resolution

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