Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

7 of 8 agents converge at 99%, with only Agent 8 (grok-4) at 85% due to weighing the 'not truly unsupervised' criticism more heavily. However, Agent 8 appears to have missed or underweighted the critical fact that the market has ALREADY RESOLVED YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, with the dispute window closed over 7 weeks ago. This is not a forward-looking prediction anymore — it's a settled market. The 100% price for 7+ consecutive weeks confirms finality. The community anger ('scam', 'rigged') comes from NO bettors who lost, not from any active dispute mechanism. The controversy about whether Tesla's Austin robotaxi service (with trailing chase cars) truly constitutes 'unsupervised FSD' is legitimate in substance but irrelevant to market resolution — the UMA oracle already adjudicated this question and ruled YES. There is no mechanism to reverse a finalized UMA resolution. I assign 99% rather than 100% only for the infinitesimal tail risk of unprecedented platform intervention. SKIP recommendation because at 100% market price there is zero edge — you cannot buy YES below 100% and there is no realistic path to NO resolution.

Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 unsupervised robotaxi launch in Austin. Dispute window closed 7+ weeks ago. Price has been at 100% continuously since resolution.

Risks

Theoretically unprecedented platform intervention to reverse a finalized UMA oracle resolution, but no evidence or precedent for this exists.

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