U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Analysis

7 of 8 agents converge at 99% probability. Agent 8 (Grok) returned 50% due to research failure (0 confidence, incomplete search) and should be entirely discounted - it's a non-informative default. The ensemble mean of 92.88% is artificially dragged down by this single failed agent; the true informed consensus is 99%.

The evidence is overwhelming and independently verified across agents: Operation Epic Fury began February 28, 2026, with the US and Israel launching ~900 strikes on Iranian territory. The war is ongoing through late March 2026. Multiple authoritative sources (NPR, Reuters, CNN, Britannica, Wikipedia, White House, CENTCOM) confirm direct US military strikes on Iranian land territory. The market definition explicitly states kinetic strikes on Iranian territory qualify for YES resolution.

However, I recommend SKIP despite high confidence because: (1) The market is already at 100% - there is zero edge to capture by buying YES. (2) The only trade would be selling NO at 0%, which offers no profit. (3) The puzzling 32% on the sibling March 31 market raises a small but non-trivial concern about resolution mechanics that I cannot fully explain. While this likely reflects a stale/illiquid market or different creation date, it introduces uncertainty about the market operator's resolution behavior.

The probability is 99% but the market is priced at 100%, so there is no profitable trade available.

Key Evidence

The 2026 Iran War began February 28, 2026 with Operation Epic Fury - nearly 900 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory in 12 hours. War is ongoing as of March 26, 2026 with 9,000+ US strikes on Iranian targets. This unambiguously meets the market's resolution criteria for military engagement.

Risks

The sibling market (March 31 deadline) trading at only 32% is deeply puzzling given the same event should resolve it YES. This could indicate a resolution technicality, market manipulation, or that the market operator has unusual interpretation of criteria. Also, the market hasn't officially resolved despite trading at 100% for 7+ days.

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