Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Analysis

All 8 agents converge on 78-88% with strong consensus on key facts: strikes occurred, Khamenei killed but succession completed, regime still functioning after 4 weeks, no ground invasion planned, historical base rate ~80-85%. The strongest agents (3, 5, 6) found specific US intelligence assessments confirming regime intact. The unprecedented leadership decapitation is the main downside risk but the regime has already weathered it. However, the edge over market price (83% vs 80%) is only ~3%, below the 5% threshold for trading. The evidence quality is high and agents are in strong consensus, but the market is already pricing this reasonably. Community discussion shows some emotional bearish sentiment that may slightly depress the price, but not enough to create a tradeable edge.

Key Evidence

DNI Gabbard testified March 18 that regime 'appears intact but largely degraded'; regime completed leadership succession within 10 days and continues governing, fighting, and negotiating after 4 weeks of strikes

Risks

Potential for US ground invasion escalation or sudden IRGC mass defection cascade in remaining 3 months - both low probability but would be decisive

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