Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Analysis

Seven of eight agents converge tightly at 3-12%, with six at 3% and one at 6%. Agent 1 (50%) should be completely disregarded as it explicitly failed to conduct any research (0 searches, 0 pages read). Excluding this outlier, the effective ensemble mean is ~4.7% with very low dispersion.

The consensus is overwhelming and well-evidenced: 1. ZERO base rate: No STF justice has ever been removed by impeachment in Brazil's entire constitutional history. 2. PROCEDURAL BLOCKADE: Senate President Alcolumbre has absolute agenda control and explicitly stated he won't schedule proceedings 'even with 81 signatures.' This is the single most important structural barrier. 3. RAISED THRESHOLDS: Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling requires 2/3 supermajority (54/81) just to OPEN proceedings, and only the Prosecutor General can initiate. Current pro-impeachment bloc has ~41 senators. 4. TIMELINE IMPOSSIBILITY: Even if proceedings somehow started tomorrow, the full impeachment process takes months. The electoral calendar empties Congress in H2 2026. 5. STRATEGIC ORIENTATION: The opposition's own strategy explicitly targets the post-2026 election Senate (seated February 2027). They're using impeachment as a campaign issue, not pursuing it now. 6. RESIGNATION ESCAPE VALVE: Community discussion and reporting suggest that if pressure becomes unbearable, justices would resign rather than face impeachment - which resolves NO per market rules.

Anti-confirmation cascade check: For the market at 17% to be correct, I would need to believe there's a ~1-in-6 chance that (a) Alcolumbre reverses course or is replaced, (b) 54+ senators vote to open proceedings, (c) the full trial completes, and (d) 54+ senators vote to convict - all before December 31, 2026. I cannot articulate a credible scenario for this chain of events. The market appears significantly overpriced, likely due to retail interest in the dramatic Banco Master scandal headlines.

Edge: Market at 17%, my estimate at 4% = 13 percentage points edge on NO. This is a strong, well-evidenced edge with multiple independent structural barriers all pointing the same direction.

Key Evidence

Zero historical precedent (0 removals in 35+ years), Senate President Alcolumbre actively blocking all proceedings, Gilmar Mendes ruling raised threshold to 54/81 supermajority just to open proceedings, and opposition's own strategy targets post-2026 elections (new Senate seated Feb 2027)

Risks

An explosive new revelation in the Banco Master scandal could theoretically create irresistible political pressure, but even then the procedural timeline (opening proceedings, committee, trial) makes completion before Dec 31 2026 nearly impossible

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