Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Analysis

Six of eight agents produced substantive research and converged strongly on 83-88% probability. Two agents (1 and 8) failed their research and defaulted to 50%, which drags the ensemble mean down to 76.5% artificially. Excluding these failed agents, the effective mean is ~85.3% and the effective median is 85%. The evidence is remarkably consistent across all functioning agents: (1) Trump committed to endorsing 'soon' on March 4, (2) Trump signaled against Paxton in a March 5 Politico interview, (3) multiple credible outlets report Cornyn is expected to get the endorsement, (4) historical base rate of ~85-90% for incumbent Republican senators, (5) the Paxton sibling market at 11% strongly corroborates. The main downside risks are: Trump's strategic delay for SAVE Act leverage, MAGA base backlash, and the fact that no formal endorsement has been made yet. However, with 8 months until the November 2026 deadline and a May 26 runoff creating a natural forcing function, the probability of endorsement is high. My estimate of 84% is above the ensemble mean (which is distorted by two failed agents) but slightly below the market price of 80.2% — wait, actually 84% is above the market price. The edge is only ~3.8 percentage points, which is below the 5% threshold for a trade recommendation. The market appears reasonably efficient here.

Key Evidence

Trump explicitly said he would endorse 'soon' on March 4, 2026, and in a March 5 Politico interview criticized Paxton's refusal to drop out, saying it 'might push me towards endorsing Cornyn.' The Paxton sibling market at 11% implies ~89% Cornyn endorsement probability.

Risks

Trump is using the endorsement as leverage for SAVE Act passage - if legislative dynamics shift or MAGA backlash intensifies, he could delay indefinitely or surprise with a Paxton endorsement. The formal endorsement has NOT happened yet despite 'soon' being said on March 4.

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