The Oracle

Track record.

Every forecast the Oracle has published, across every source, newest first — Polymarket markets, reader questions, and Metaculus AIB submissions in one ledger. Each prediction is cryptographically timestamped to the Bitcoin blockchain, so it can never be quietly changed after the fact. Nothing is ever taken down.

210
Predictions
98
Resolved
112
Open
Of 98 resolved: 82 correct · 16 incorrect
Source
Topic
Status

210 predictions

When Source Question Forecast Status Proof
Oracle Will the full Kimi K3 model weights be publicly downloadable from Hugging Face or ModelScope by August 15, 2026, without application or approval requirements (standard click-through license acceptance permitted)? Resolves YES if the official Moonshot AI repository allows public download of the K3 weights by the deadline. 88.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 global unit case volume growth 3.5%-4.5%? ↗ 10.7% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? ↗
Geopolitics
68.7% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July? ↗ 12.0% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%? ↗
Markets
8.8% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July? ↗ 8.0% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Odense BK win on 2026-07-24? ↗ 29.0% Open ⛓ pending
Metaculus AIB What will be the price of Brent crude on August 28, 2026?
Energy
— Open ⛓ proof
Oracle Will Donald Trump officially file as a candidate for a third term as President of the United States with the Federal Election Commission by December 31, 2028?
ElectionsFed / rates
5.0% Open ⛓ proof
Oracle Will the US Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at its next scheduled FOMC meeting, per the official FOMC statement?
Fed / rates
4.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket California voter ID referendum passes? ↗
Elections
23.0% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by July 31? ↗ 9.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026? ↗ 93.0% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%? ↗
Markets
16.2% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by July 31? ↗ 13.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31? ↗ 19.8% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↗
Sports
58.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? ↗ 48.2% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the July meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
28.2% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95 mph? ↗ 42.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%? ↗
Markets
12.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? ↗ 80.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? ↗ 61.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat? ↗ 40.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers? ↗ 14.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? ↗
Markets
23.3% Open ⛓ proof
Oracle Will SpaceX complete an orbital Starship flight with a successful booster catch before 1 Jan 2027, per an official SpaceX announcement?
Tech / AI
60.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
8.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series? ↗ 35.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? ↗
Elections
6.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and ≤207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? ↗
Elections
9.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Rick Brattin be the MO-05 Republican nominee? ↗
Elections
40.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%? ↗
Markets
26.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat? ↗ 85.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
2.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? ↗
ElectionsMarkets
66.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? ↗
Elections
33.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? ↗
Elections
24.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? ↗
Markets
27.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? ↗
Elections
36.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? ↗ 2.3% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? ↗
Elections
2.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? ↗
Tech / AI
23.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? ↗ 3.2% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Canada recession before 2027? ↗
Markets
38.1% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? ↗ 19.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? ↗ 82.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? ↗
Geopolitics
91.3% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? ↗ 58.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? ↗ 90.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? ↗ 13.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
79.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
92.5% Resolved: NO ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ↗
Elections
61.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
80.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? ↗
Elections
7.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? ↗ 26.1% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
13.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
16.7% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.1% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
10.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? ↗ 9.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.1% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? ↗ 30.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? ↗ 2.3% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? ↗
Elections
69.7% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.7% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
66.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
50.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
46.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.7% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
21.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
39.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
19.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
10.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? ↗
Geopolitics
5.0% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Maduro guilty of all counts? ↗ 23.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.1% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket US congress stock trading ban before 2027? ↗
ElectionsMarkets
6.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? ↗ 7.0% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? ↗
Elections
14.8% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? ↗ 16.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat? ↗ 12.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
16.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? ↗ 14.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
55.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
44.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
55.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
65.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? ↗
Elections
66.7% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? ↗
Elections
22.2% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? ↗
Elections
36.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? ↗ 91.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? ↗ 5.0% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗
Elections
51.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? ↗
Elections
99.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the MA-06 House seat? ↗ 0.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? ↗ 77.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? ↗ 10.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat? ↗ 0.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat? ↗ 99.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
99.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat? ↗ 99.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat? ↗ 0.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat? ↗ 99.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
99.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Another Canada election called by June 30? ↗
Elections
6.0% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? ↗ 4.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? ↗ 77.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? ↗ 25.5% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? ↗ 10.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027? ↗ 6.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
1.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? ↗ 3.1% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? ↗
Geopolitics
100.0% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗
Elections
4.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5) ↗ 100.0% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 ↗ 100.0% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Spread: North Texas (-26.5) ↗ 100.0% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? ↗
Elections
6.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? ↗
Elections
1.8% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? ↗
Elections
15.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? ↗
ElectionsGeopolitics
46.5% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? ↗
Elections
25.5% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? ↗
Elections
87.0% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027? ↗
Elections
1.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? ↗
Elections
58.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? ↗
Elections
81.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? ↗
Elections
8.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗
Elections
17.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? ↗
Elections
13.0% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? ↗
Elections
58.6% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? ↗
Elections
16.3% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? ↗
Elections
63.6% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat? ↗ 99.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? ↗ 83.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the IL-17 House seat? ↗ 95.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the MD-06 House seat? ↗ 98.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the ME-01 House seat? ↗ 99.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat? ↗ 0.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? ↗
Elections
3.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? ↗ 99.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat? ↗ 0.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the PA-13 House seat? ↗ 99.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? ↗ 99.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
0.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31? ↗
Elections
21.3% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31? ↗
Elections
0.4% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31? ↗
Elections
12.0% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Fact Check: is L.A. U-Haul attack perp a U.S. Citizen? ↗ 3.1% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? ↗ 77.3% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition ↗ 96.4% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? ↗ 0.8% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? ↗ 15.2% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? ↗ 83.7% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%? ↗
Fed / ratesSports
3.6% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Canada’s February 2026 unemployment rate be 6.5%? ↗
Markets
13.0% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? ↗
Elections
21.3% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? ↗ 73.0% Resolved: NO ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by March 2? ↗
Elections
6.0% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election? ↗
Elections
3.1% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? ↗ 15.2% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings? ↗
Markets
96.9% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? ↗ 98.6% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%? ↗
Markets
0.8% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32? ↗
Elections
90.0% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Jessica Steinmann be the Republican Nominee for TX-08? ↗
Elections
90.0% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31? ↗
Elections
96.4% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? ↗
ElectionsGeopolitics
93.3% Resolved: NO ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? ↗
MarketsTech / AI
98.6% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Patty Murray vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? ↗ 50.0% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? ↗
Elections
78.7% Resolved: NO ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02? ↗
Elections
22.7% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
10.0% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Russia enter Khatnie by February 28, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
0.8% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars? ↗
Entertainment
18.7% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? ↗ 38.0% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) win the most gubernatorial elections in Bolivia in 2026? ↗
ElectionsGeopolitics
1.4% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the NYC nurses strike end by February 28, 2026? ↗ 46.5% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70? ↗ 41.4% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
98.9% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump say "Antifa" in February? ↗ 36.4% Resolved: NO ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump say “Low IQ” by February 28? ↗ 81.3% Resolved: YES ✓ ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
4.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
22.7% Resolved: YES ✗ ⛓ proof

How to verify a prediction

Every prediction is timestamped to the Bitcoin blockchain using OpenTimestamps. When a prediction is published, the SHA-256 hash of its content.md is anchored into a Bitcoin block. The .ots proof traces back to that block, proving the text existed before the outcome was known.

  • 1. Open a prediction and download its .ots proof (the ⛓ proof link) and its content.md.
  • 2. Drag both into the verifier at opentimestamps.org, or run ots verify content.md.ots locally.
  • 3. The proof resolves to the Bitcoin block that fixes the prediction’s latest-possible publication time.

The .ots proof is the whole argument — no trust in this site required. Full detail on the method is on the About the Oracle page.

Prefer machine-readable? The same data is served at /track-record.json.

This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice.