The Oracle

Track record.

Every forecast the Oracle has published, across every source, newest first — Polymarket markets, reader questions, and Metaculus AIB submissions in one ledger. Each prediction is cryptographically timestamped to the Bitcoin blockchain, so it can never be quietly changed after the fact. Nothing is ever taken down.

277 Predictions
133 Resolved
144 Open
Of 133 resolved: 107 correct · 26 incorrect

Skill, honestly measured

Being right is cheap when the market already agreed with you. Every statistic below scores the Oracle against the market price at the moment it forecast — with confidence intervals, exclusion counts, and no cherry-picking.

Skill vs the market

Skill statistics are being computed. The eval suite scores every Oracle forecast against the market it was made in — paired Brier skill, closing-line value, calibration — and publishes the results here once the export runs. Until then, no number is better than a flattering one.

Source
Topic
Status

277 predictions

When Source Question Forecast Status Proof
Polymarket Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? ↗
Fed / ratesGeopolitics
55.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 19, 2026? ↗ 86.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? ↗ 44.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? ↗
Tech / AI
54.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July? ↗ 50.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election? ↗
Elections
93.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? ↗ 17.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? ↗ 85.3% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Metaculus AIB Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Text Arena Leaderboard at the end of August 2026?
Tech / AI
43.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
64.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Chris Hill win the 2026 Collin County Judge election? ↗
Elections
89.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? ↗
Elections
76.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? ↗
Elections
79.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? ↗
Elections
87.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee? ↗
Elections
71.2% Resolved: NO incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%? ↗
Markets
25.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? ↗
Markets
33.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30? ↗ 10.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in August? ↗ 66.2% Open ⛓ proof
Metaculus AIB What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in August 2026?
Markets
— Open ⛓ proof
Metaculus AIB Will Reykjavík, Iceland have a clear view of the total eclipse of the Sun on August 12, 2026? 24.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
30.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
37.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? ↗ 42.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will "DTF St. Louis" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? ↗
Geopolitics
96.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? ↗
Tech / AI
24.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
90.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
77.0% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%? ↗
Elections
39.8% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%? ↗
Elections
45.3% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? ↗ 78.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? ↗ 91.5% Open ⛓ pending
Metaculus AIB Will the USDA-posted recall by Reser’s Fine Foods, Inc. of its Ready-To-Eat Pasta Salad Product issued June 25, 2026 be closed before September 1, 2026? 51.5% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? ↗ 6.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? ↗
Tech / AI
83.0% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by July 31? ↗ 62.0% Resolved: NO incorrect ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? ↗ 4.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026? ↗ 97.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? ↗
Energy
60.3% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
69.7% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings? ↗
Markets
81.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? ↗
Elections
50.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
70.8% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? ↗
Fed / rates
70.0% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? ↗ 95.0% Open ⛓ pending
Metaculus AIB What will be the highest stock price of SpaceX in August 2026?
MarketsTech / AI
— Open ⛓ proof
Metaculus AIB What will be the lowest stock price of SpaceX in August 2026?
MarketsTech / AI
— Open ⛓ pending
Metaculus AIB Will the USDA-posted recall by Synear Foods USA, LLC, of its frozen pork and crab soup dumpling products issued May 31, 2026 be closed before September 1, 2026? 27.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Lam Research (LRCX) Q4 China revenue mix <30%? ↗
Markets
70.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the AZ-08 House seat? ↗ 92.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat? ↗ 95.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
72.0% Open ⛓ proof
Metaculus AIB How many U.S. metropolitan areas will have Tesla robotaxi service on August 31, 2026? — Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? ↗
Entertainment
52.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? ↗
Entertainment
51.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026? ↗ 72.0% Resolved: NO incorrect ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? ↗
Elections
85.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in July? ↗
Energy
70.7% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
6.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? ↗
Geopolitics
15.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? ↗
Geopolitics
6.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
13.0% Open ⛓ proof
Metaculus AIB Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin speak on the phone with each other in August 2026? 51.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? ↗ 33.0% Open ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? ↗
Elections
19.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat? ↗ 82.0% Open ⛓ proof
Oracle Will the full Kimi K3 model weights be publicly downloadable from Hugging Face or ModelScope by August 15, 2026, without application or approval requirements (standard click-through license acceptance permitted)? Resolves YES if the official Moonshot AI repository allows public download of the K3 weights by the deadline. 88.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 global unit case volume growth 3.5%-4.5%? ↗ 10.7% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? ↗
Geopolitics
30.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July? ↗ 12.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%? ↗
Markets
8.8% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July? ↗ 8.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Odense BK win on 2026-07-24? ↗ 29.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Metaculus AIB What will be the price of Brent crude on August 28, 2026?
Energy
— Open ⛓ proof
Oracle Will Donald Trump officially file as a candidate for a third term as President of the United States with the Federal Election Commission by December 31, 2028?
ElectionsFed / rates
5.0% Open ⛓ proof
Oracle Will the US Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at its next scheduled FOMC meeting, per the official FOMC statement?
Fed / rates
4.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket California voter ID referendum passes? ↗
Elections
23.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by July 31? ↗ 9.3% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026? ↗ 90.0% Resolved: NO incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%? ↗
Markets
16.2% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by July 31? ↗ 13.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31? ↗ 19.8% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↗
Sports
58.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? ↗ 48.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the July meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
28.2% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95 mph? ↗ 97.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%? ↗
Markets
12.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? ↗ 80.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? ↗ 61.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat? ↗ 50.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers? ↗ 1.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? ↗
Markets
23.3% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Oracle Will SpaceX complete an orbital Starship flight with a successful booster catch before 1 Jan 2027, per an official SpaceX announcement?
Tech / AI
60.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
8.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series? ↗ 50.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? ↗
Elections
6.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and ≤207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? ↗
Elections
9.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Rick Brattin be the MO-05 Republican nominee? ↗
Elections
40.2% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%? ↗
Markets
26.8% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat? ↗ 85.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
2.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? ↗
ElectionsMarkets
66.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? ↗
Elections
33.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? ↗
Elections
24.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? ↗
Markets
23.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ pending
Polymarket Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? ↗
Elections
36.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? ↗ 2.3% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? ↗
Elections
2.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? ↗
Tech / AI
23.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? ↗ 3.2% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Canada recession before 2027? ↗
Markets
38.1% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? ↗ 19.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? ↗ 82.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? ↗
Geopolitics
91.3% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? ↗ 58.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? ↗ 90.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? ↗ 13.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
79.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
92.5% Resolved: NO incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ↗
Elections
61.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
80.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? ↗
Elections
7.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? ↗ 26.1% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
13.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
16.7% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.1% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
10.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? ↗ 9.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
99.2% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.1% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? ↗ 30.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? ↗ 2.3% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? ↗
Elections
69.7% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.7% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
66.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
50.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
46.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.7% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
21.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
39.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
19.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
10.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? ↗
Geopolitics
5.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Maduro guilty of all counts? ↗ 23.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? ↗ 98.1% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket US congress stock trading ban before 2027? ↗
ElectionsMarkets
6.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? ↗ 7.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? ↗
Elections
14.8% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? ↗ 16.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat? ↗ 12.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
16.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? ↗ 14.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
55.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
44.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
55.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
65.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? ↗
Elections
66.7% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? ↗
Elections
22.2% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? ↗
Elections
36.5% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? ↗ 91.9% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? ↗ 5.0% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗
Elections
51.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? ↗
Elections
99.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the MA-06 House seat? ↗ 0.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? ↗ 77.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? ↗ 10.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat? ↗ 0.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat? ↗ 99.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
99.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat? ↗ 99.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat? ↗ 0.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat? ↗ 99.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? ↗
Elections
99.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Another Canada election called by June 30? ↗
Elections
6.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? ↗ 4.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? ↗ 77.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? ↗ 25.5% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? ↗ 10.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027? ↗ 6.0% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
1.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? ↗ 3.1% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? ↗
Geopolitics
100.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗
Elections
4.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5) ↗ 100.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 ↗ 100.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Spread: North Texas (-26.5) ↗ 100.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? ↗
Elections
6.7% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? ↗
Elections
1.8% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? ↗
Elections
15.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? ↗
ElectionsGeopolitics
46.5% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? ↗
Elections
25.5% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? ↗
Elections
87.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027? ↗
Elections
1.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? ↗
Elections
58.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? ↗
Elections
81.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? ↗
Elections
8.3% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗
Elections
17.5% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? ↗
Elections
13.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? ↗
Elections
58.6% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? ↗
Elections
16.3% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? ↗
Elections
63.6% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat? ↗ 99.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? ↗ 83.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the IL-17 House seat? ↗ 95.3% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the MD-06 House seat? ↗ 98.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the ME-01 House seat? ↗ 99.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat? ↗ 0.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? ↗
Elections
3.1% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? ↗ 99.2% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat? ↗ 0.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the PA-13 House seat? ↗ 99.4% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? ↗ 99.6% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? ↗
Elections
0.8% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31? ↗
Elections
21.3% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31? ↗
Elections
0.4% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31? ↗
Elections
12.0% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Fact Check: is L.A. U-Haul attack perp a U.S. Citizen? ↗ 3.1% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? ↗ 77.3% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition ↗ 96.4% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? ↗ 0.8% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? ↗ 15.2% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? ↗ 83.7% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%? ↗
Fed / ratesSports
3.6% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Canada’s February 2026 unemployment rate be 6.5%? ↗
Markets
13.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? ↗
Elections
21.3% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? ↗ 73.0% Resolved: NO incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by March 2? ↗
Elections
6.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election? ↗
Elections
3.1% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? ↗ 15.2% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings? ↗
Markets
96.9% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? ↗ 98.6% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%? ↗
Markets
0.8% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32? ↗
Elections
90.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Jessica Steinmann be the Republican Nominee for TX-08? ↗
Elections
90.0% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31? ↗
Elections
96.4% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? ↗
ElectionsGeopolitics
93.3% Resolved: NO incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? ↗
MarketsTech / AI
98.6% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Patty Murray vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? ↗ 50.0% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? ↗
Elections
78.7% Resolved: NO incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02? ↗
Elections
22.7% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
10.0% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Russia enter Khatnie by February 28, 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
0.8% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars? ↗
Entertainment
18.7% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? ↗ 38.0% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) win the most gubernatorial elections in Bolivia in 2026? ↗
ElectionsGeopolitics
1.4% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the NYC nurses strike end by February 28, 2026? ↗ 46.5% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70? ↗ 41.4% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? ↗
Fed / rates
98.9% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump say "Antifa" in February? ↗ 36.4% Resolved: NO correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Trump say “Low IQ” by February 28? ↗ 81.3% Resolved: YES correct ⛓ proof
Polymarket Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? ↗
Geopolitics
4.7% Open ⛓ proof
Polymarket Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? ↗
Geopolitics
22.7% Resolved: YES incorrect ⛓ proof

How to verify a prediction

Every prediction is timestamped to the Bitcoin blockchain using OpenTimestamps. When a prediction is published, the SHA-256 hash of its content.md is anchored into a Bitcoin block. The .ots proof traces back to that block, proving the text existed before the outcome was known.

  • 1. Open a prediction and download its .ots proof (the ⛓ proof link) and its content.md.
  • 2. Drag both into the verifier at opentimestamps.org, or run ots verify content.md.ots locally.
  • 3. The proof resolves to the Bitcoin block that fixes the prediction’s latest-possible publication time.

The .ots proof is the whole argument — no trust in this site required. Full detail on the method is on the About the Oracle page.

Prefer machine-readable? The same data is served at /track-record.json.

This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice.