Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Analysis

Six of eight agents conducted substantive research and converged strongly on 7-15% probability. Agents 1 and 2 failed their research and defaulted to 50%, which should be completely discarded - they had zero confidence and zero evidence. Excluding these two failed agents, the effective ensemble mean is ~11%, median ~11%, which aligns almost perfectly with the market price of 11.2%.

The consensus among informed agents is overwhelming: (1) Trump publicly warned Paxton it was 'bad for him' to refuse to drop out, (2) multiple White House advisers told credible outlets (Atlantic, Politico, CNN) Trump is expected to endorse Cornyn, (3) Senate leadership is lobbying hard for Cornyn, (4) Trump's own top campaign advisers are working for Cornyn's campaign, and (5) Paxton himself floated conditions for dropping out, implicitly acknowledging Trump is leaning Cornyn.

The remaining probability comes from: (a) Trump hasn't formally endorsed yet and is unpredictable (~3-4%), (b) if Paxton wins the runoff despite a Cornyn endorsement, Trump would likely endorse the GOP nominee for the general (~2-3%), (c) MAGA base backlash could cause Trump to stay neutral or flip (~1-2%), (d) Cornyn could defy Trump on key legislation causing a reversal (~1-2%).

The ensemble mean of 20.8% is an artifact of two failed agents at 50%. The true informed consensus is ~11%, matching the market. There is no edge here. The market is correctly priced.

Key Evidence

Trump publicly scolded Paxton for refusing to drop out, multiple White House advisers confirm Trump is expected to endorse Cornyn, and the sibling Cornyn endorsement market is at 52% vs Paxton at 11.2%.

Risks

If Paxton wins the May 26 runoff despite Trump endorsing Cornyn, Trump could endorse Paxton for the general election before Nov 2 2026. This is a small but real path (~5-10% conditional probability contributing ~2-3% to overall).

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