Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree this market has effectively already resolved YES, with probabilities ranging from 85-99%. The core facts are undisputed: Tesla launched robotaxi rides in Austin on January 22, 2026 without an in-car safety monitor, the UMA oracle resolved the market YES around January 29, and the price has been at 100% since. The only dissent comes from Agent 6 (85%) who weighs Tesla's contradictory regulatory filings more heavily, but even they would bet YES. The community discussion confirms resolution occurred - comments are complaints about the resolution being wrong, not uncertainty about whether it will resolve. Agent 8 (99%) and Agent 2 (98%) had the strongest evidence, correctly identifying that prediction markets resolve based on their oracle mechanisms regardless of philosophical debates about what 'unsupervised' truly means. The real-world controversy (chase cars, remote operators, Level 2 ADAS filings, shrinking fleet) is irrelevant to the market outcome since it has already resolved. At 100% market price and ~97% estimated probability, there is no meaningful edge to trade. The 3% residual uncertainty I assign covers the extremely unlikely scenario of a resolution reversal, but no agent found evidence of an active appeal process. SKIP because there is zero edge - buying YES at 100% offers no upside, and the probability of reversal is too low to justify a NO position.

Key Evidence

Market has already resolved YES at 100% via UMA oracle around January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 Austin robotaxi launch with no in-car safety monitor. Despite community outrage and Tesla's own CPUC filings describing the system as Level 2, the resolution appears final.

Risks

The only risk is if an active dispute/review process could overturn the UMA oracle resolution, but no agent found concrete evidence this is happening. The market has been at 100% for weeks.

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