Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred - Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by every major international news outlet and Iranian state media itself. A formal succession process was completed with Mojtaba Khamenei elected as the new Supreme Leader. This is not a forecast but a confirmation of a past event. The 1% holdback from 100% across all agents represents only the theoretical possibility that all global media is engaged in coordinated disinformation, which is not credible. However, the market is already priced at 100%, meaning there is ZERO edge available. Even though the probability assessment is essentially certain, there is no profitable trade to make. The recommendation is SKIP purely because the market price already fully reflects the resolved outcome.

Key Evidence

Ali Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, confirmed by Iranian state media, BBC, Reuters, CNN, NPR, Al Jazeera, and numerous other credible outlets. Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed as successor Supreme Leader.

Risks

Market is already priced at 100% - there is no edge to capture even though the event has definitively occurred

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