Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

This market has already resolved to YES. The split among agents is not about what will happen but about whether the resolution was 'correct' in substance. Agents 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 (5 of 8) correctly identify that the market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle around January 29, 2026, and assign 97-99% probability. Agents 3, 7, 8 argue the resolution was wrong on the merits - Tesla's service isn't truly unsupervised given chase cars, remote operators, and Tesla's own CPUC filing classifying it as Level 2 ADAS. However, this is irrelevant to the prediction market outcome. The UMA oracle has resolved, the challenge period has passed, and the price has been at 100% for over 6 weeks. The ensemble mean of 64.9% is an artifact of averaging agents who are answering different questions - some answer 'will the market resolve YES' (correct framing) while others answer 'did Tesla truly launch unsupervised FSD' (irrelevant to market resolution). The median of 97% is far more appropriate. At 100% market price, there is no edge to trade - buying YES at 100% yields zero profit, and selling NO against an already-resolved market is throwing money away. Despite high confidence in the outcome, SKIP is the correct recommendation because there is zero edge at current prices.

Key Evidence

Market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle around January 29, 2026. Price has been stable at 100% for weeks with no active dispute process. The resolution is final.

Risks

Theoretical possibility of UMA dispute reversal, but challenge period has long passed making this essentially impossible.

View on Polymarket