Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Analysis

After excluding Agent 1 (who misunderstands resolution criteria by counting 2025 strikes), the remaining 7 agents cluster around 5-72% with most in the 17-52% range. The adjusted mean is ~32%. The core question is whether Houthis break 3+ weeks of restraint in 13 days. Strong evidence of deterrence (leadership decapitation fear, logistical exhaustion, Iran holding them in reserve) vs. genuine escalation risk (active regional war, Houthi threats, analyst consensus that entry is 'matter of time'). The sibling market at 53% for June 30 implies the market sees ~30% incremental probability for April-June, suggesting March resolution is less likely. My estimate of 27% represents only a ~6% edge over market price of 21%, which is marginal given high uncertainty (confidence 0.45) and the speculative nature of predicting Houthi decision-making. The edge is not strong enough to justify a trade given resolution ambiguity and fundamental uncertainty about timing.

Key Evidence

Houthis have maintained deliberate restraint for 3+ weeks despite active Iran war; only 13 days remain. But active war environment and 'hands on trigger' rhetoric create genuine tail risk.

Risks

Unverified March 2 Threads post claiming Israel already striking Yemen - if true, market already resolves YES. Also, a Houthi attack could happen any day with no warning, triggering rapid Israeli retaliation.

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