Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously assign 99% probability. The event has already occurred: Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by Iranian state TV, BBC, Reuters, CNN, Al Jazeera, and numerous other credible international outlets. A successor (Mojtaba Khamenei) has already been appointed by the Assembly of Experts. This clearly satisfies the resolution criteria of being 'removed from power' before December 31, 2026. The 1% residual is appropriate for the theoretical possibility of an elaborate hoax, which is negligible given the breadth of confirmation including Iranian state media. However, the market is already priced at 100%, meaning there is zero edge available. Even with 99% confidence in YES, buying at 100% offers no profit. SKIP is the correct recommendation as there is no tradeable edge despite overwhelming evidence.

Key Evidence

Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by BBC, Reuters, CNN, Al Jazeera, Iranian state TV, and numerous other credible sources. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as successor by the Assembly of Experts on March 8, 2026.

Risks

Market is already at 100% so there is no edge to capture despite near-certainty of YES resolution

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