Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Analysis

This market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle around January 29, 2026. The critical question is NOT whether Tesla truly launched unsupervised FSD, but whether the already-finalized market resolution will be reversed. 6 of 8 agents (Agents 1,2,3,5,6,7) correctly identified this as an already-resolved market and gave probabilities of 97-99%. Agents 4 and 8 appear to have analyzed the substantive question of whether Tesla's launch truly qualifies as 'unsupervised FSD' rather than the market resolution question. While their substantive analysis is arguably correct (Tesla's own CPUC filings describe Level 2 ADAS, chase cars follow vehicles, remote operators are used), this is irrelevant to how the market will pay out - it already resolved YES. The ensemble mean of 75.5% is an artifact of averaging two fundamentally different analyses: 6 agents analyzing the resolved market (avg ~98.5%) and 2 agents analyzing the underlying question (avg ~6.5%). The median of 98.5% is far more representative. The market at 100% reflects a completed resolution. The probability of reversal after 7+ weeks with no active dispute is negligible - perhaps 1-3%. However, since the market is already at 100%, there is essentially no edge to capture by buying YES. The spread between my estimate (~97%) and market price (100%) is only 3%, which is below the 5% threshold for a trade. Even if I believed 99%, the edge would only be 1%. SKIP is the correct recommendation - no profitable trade exists on an already-resolved market at 100%.

Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on ~January 29, 2026 based on Tesla's January 22 Austin robotaxi launch. Price has been at 100% for 7+ weeks with no active dispute process. 6 of 8 agents independently confirmed the resolution is final.

Risks

Theoretical possibility of an unprecedented UMA oracle resolution reversal, though no evidence of any active mechanism or process to do so

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