Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred - Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, confirmed by every major international news outlet and Iranian state media itself. A successor has been appointed. This is not a forecast but a confirmation of a past event. The market is correctly priced at 100%. However, despite overwhelming certainty, there is NO tradeable edge: the market is at 100% and my estimate is 99%. You cannot buy YES at 100% and profit. The recommendation is SKIP because |edge| = 0-1%, far below the 5% threshold needed for a trade. This is a fully resolved market with no remaining opportunity.

Key Evidence

Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by Iranian state TV, BBC, CNN, Reuters, Al Jazeera, NYT, and all major international outlets. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed by Assembly of Experts on March 8-9, 2026.

Risks

Market is already at 100% - there is zero edge available despite the event being confirmed. Buying YES at 100% offers no profit.

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