Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred: Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in US-Israeli strikes, confirmed by Iranian state media (which declared 40 days of mourning), multiple top-tier international outlets (Reuters, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, NPR, Forbes, CNBC), and government officials (Trump, Netanyahu). A successor (Mojtaba Khamenei) has already been named and is issuing official statements. This is a confirmed historical event, not a forecast. The 1% residual is appropriate for the infinitesimal possibility of a coordinated global disinformation campaign, which no agent found any evidence for. However, the market is priced at 100%, meaning there is zero edge available. Even with 99% confidence in YES, buying at 100% offers no profit opportunity. SKIP is the correct recommendation because |edge| = 0-1%, far below the 5% threshold required for a trade.

Key Evidence

Ali Khamenei was confirmed killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, verified by Iranian state TV, Reuters, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, and multiple governments. His son Mojtaba Khamenei has already been named successor and is issuing official statements as new Supreme Leader.

Risks

Market is already at 100% so there is no edge to capture despite near-certainty of the outcome.

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