Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Analysis

Discarding Agent 8 (incomplete research), the remaining 7 agents range from 62-95%. The three most thoroughly researched agents (3, 4, 6) all converge around 93-95%, finding specific evidence of imminent Houthi war entry and active regional conflict. Agents 2 and 5 are lower (62-72%) primarily because they weight current Houthi restraint more heavily. However, the question asks about a 3+ month window during an unprecedented regional war. Even if monthly strike probability is ~50%, cumulative probability over 3 months exceeds 85%. Israel struck Yemen 9+ times in 2025 under less escalatory conditions. The key conditional is: if Houthis attack, Israeli retaliation is ~certain. The probability Houthis maintain complete restraint for 3+ months during an active war involving their patron Iran is low. Edge of ~10% over market price of 75% with moderate-to-strong evidence quality justifies a YES trade.

Key Evidence

Active US-Israel-Iran war since Feb 28, 2026 with Houthis reportedly on verge of entering (March 23 after Eid al-Fitr), combined with Israel's proven willingness to strike Yemen (9+ strikes in 2025) and 3+ month window for escalation

Risks

Houthi deterrence may be more durable than expected — they've shown 3+ weeks of restraint despite rhetoric, and leadership decapitation in Aug 2025 may have fundamentally changed their calculus. War could also end via unexpected diplomacy.

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