U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Analysis

7 of 8 agents independently arrived at 99% probability after conducting separate research. Agent 1 (50%) had a research failure with 0 searches and 0 pages read, making it a complete outlier that should be disregarded. The remaining 7 agents all found the same overwhelming evidence: Operation Epic Fury commenced February 28, 2026, involving thousands of U.S. kinetic strikes directly on Iranian territory. This is confirmed by official White House press releases, CENTCOM announcements, Reuters, Wikipedia, CSIS, Britannica, and numerous other authoritative sources. The market has been at 100% for at least 7 consecutive days. Agent 7 even found that Polymarket has already proposed YES resolution with no disputes. The true ensemble excluding the failed agent is 99%. The market is priced at 100%. My estimate of 99% reflects the ~1% residual risk of some extraordinary resolution technicality. However, since the market is already at 100%, there is zero edge available - buying YES at 100% offers no profit, and the evidence overwhelmingly confirms the event occurred, making a NO trade irrational. SKIP is the only rational recommendation despite near-certainty of YES resolution.

Key Evidence

Operation Epic Fury launched February 28, 2026 - a confirmed full-scale U.S. military campaign against Iran with 7,800+ strikes on Iranian territory, confirmed by White House, CENTCOM, Reuters, and multiple authoritative sources. The event has already occurred and clearly meets resolution criteria.

Risks

The sibling market (by March 31) is only at 32% despite the same underlying event having occurred, which could indicate resolution mechanics issues, market operator disputes, or the intercepted-missiles exclusion clause in community discussion. However, the June 30 market at 100% for 7+ days suggests this specific market will resolve YES.

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