Predictions

Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?

7 of 8 agents with substantive research converge on 25-32% (excluding the broken Agent 1 at 50% and outlier Agent 8 at 13%). The consensus view is clear: Clark faces a chain of contingencies - Scott must not run (~30%), she must enter (~75%), and she must win the primary (~55%). Agents uniformly identified the same key evidence: no declaration,...

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Six of eight agents estimate 42-53%, with only Agent 2 at 68% pulling the mean up. The core question is the DPK primary, where polling is genuinely mixed but Kim leads in more polls. Decomposing: ~50% primary win × ~87% general election win ≈ 43-48%. The market at 58% appears to over-weight Choo's momentum from a single February poll while...

Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

All 8 agents converge on Estrosi being the underdog despite incumbency. The critical evidence is not just the 10-point polling deficit but the 42% base defection rate — this is not a normal incumbency challenge where historical base rates apply. Agents 4 and 5 provided the strongest evidence by identifying Chesnel-Le Roux's explicit refusal to withdraw (making triangulaire likely, which...

Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

Agents split into two camps: structural optimists (78-82%) emphasizing fragmented opposition and bonus seat mechanism, and cautious pessimists (62-68%) emphasizing low approval and Karapetyan surge. The structural argument is stronger for this specific question (most seats, not majority). However, the edge vs market price (74%) is minimal. The 62% agents over-weight head-to-head polls irrelevant to a multi-party proportional election. The...

Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?

All 8 agents converge on a low probability (4-12%, mean 7.4%) with strong agreement on the key structural barriers: (1) Booker's 2026 Senate reelection makes a pre-November announcement politically untenable, (2) the effective window narrows to ~8 weeks post-election in Nov-Dec 2026, (3) historical base rates strongly favor 2027 announcements, (4) no Democrat has announced for 2028 yet, eliminating first-mover...

Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

Agents split 42-68% range with most clustering 50-57%. The strongest evidence comes from Agents 2, 3, 4, and 6 who found specific polling and fundraising data. The Lake Research poll (Begich internal) showing Bronson at 13% in 3rd place is the best available data point and suggests he's competitive for top 4. However, his 7th-place fundraising among Republicans, terrible approval...

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

All 8 agents agree on the fundamental picture: Flavio is firmly in 2nd place with a massive gap over 3rd place, Tarcísio withdrew, and historical patterns favor a PT vs. right-wing runoff. Agent 3 is the outlier at 58% but even they acknowledge Flavio's strong polling position - they just weight substitution risk higher. The 7 other agents cluster tightly...

Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Seven of eight agents with substantive research converge tightly around 18-27%, with six of seven clustering at 18-23%. Agent 7 (50%) had incomplete research and zero confidence, so it should be discarded entirely. Excluding that outlier, the adjusted mean is ~21.1% and median is ~20%. All agents found the same core evidence: McMorrow leads the latest poll (22% vs Stevens...

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

All 8 agents converge tightly (26-34%) around the market price of 29.5%. The evidence is genuinely balanced: unprecedented polling strength for Bardella (first far-right candidate to lead all runoff matchups) vs. unbroken historical pattern (0/3 far-right wins) and well-documented unreliability of French polls 14+ months out. The Le Pen appeal verdict (July 7, 2026) is the single most important unknown...

Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

All 8 agents agree Porter is in a weak position: 4th place at 10%, declining trajectory, weak convention showing, and massive Democratic fragmentation. The range (18-32%) reflects different weightings of the undecided bloc and consolidation potential, not fundamental disagreement. Agent 2 (18%) made the strongest case with the declining trend evidence, while Agents 1 and 3 (32%) gave more weight...

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Agents split into two camps: 62% (3 agents emphasizing Nadler endorsement power) and 48-52% (5 agents emphasizing fundraising gaps, crowded field uncertainty, and upset risk). The split reflects genuine uncertainty about whether endorsements or money matter more in a 9-candidate NYC primary with no polling. Historical base rates suggest 20-40% for any single non-incumbent candidate, making 55% already generous. The...

Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: Park trails significantly in polls, the national environment is terrible for PPP, but Busan's conservative base and Chun's legal jeopardy provide a floor. The disagreement is only about magnitude (22-35% range, std dev 4.8%). My estimate of 28% aligns with the ensemble median of 29% and reflects that current polling and national...

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

All 8 agents agree on the core dynamics: Hilton leads one poll but trails in another, Democratic fragmentation helps Republicans, and the Hilton-Bianco split is the key variable. The ensemble mean of 57.8% vs market price of 53% suggests a ~5% edge, but this is borderline given: (1) conflicting polls create genuine uncertainty about Hilton's true position, (2) 3+ months...

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat?

All 8 agents are in tight consensus (94-97%, mean 95.9%) that this is a near-certain Democratic hold. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent: D+23-26 PVI, Cook Solid D rating, incumbent Democrat running for reelection, 2024 general was all-Democrat (no Republican even advanced), Silicon Valley hasn't elected a Republican since the 1990s, and 2026 midterm under Republican president favors Democrats. The...

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?

All 8 agents agree on core fundamentals favoring Democrats (Solid D, incumbent running, midterm tailwind). The key divergence is how much weight to give redistricting risk, which Agent 6 uniquely identified. I'm pulling below the ensemble mean (77.9%) toward 72% to account for redistricting uncertainty, but staying well above market (56%) because: (1) Frankel is confirmed running, (2) Palm Beach...

Will the Democratic Party win the IL-17 House seat?

All 8 agents agree Democrats are strongly favored (range 66-92%, mean 82.4%). The evidence is specific, verifiable, and multi-layered: Cook 'Likely D' rating with ~95% historical accuracy, two-term incumbent with improving margins (52%→54.4%), D+3 PVI, opposition-party midterm advantage, weak GOP field locked in after filing deadline, and Kalshi at 93%. The market at 58% appears severely mispriced - to justify...

Will the Democratic Party win the MD-06 House seat?

Seven of eight agents produced substantive research (Agent 6/Gemini failed and should be excluded entirely, making the effective mean ~91.9% and median ~92%). The remaining seven agents show strong consensus on key facts: (1) Cook rates MD-06 Solid D, (2) Democrats have won 6+ consecutive cycles since 2012, (3) the competitive race is the Democratic primary not the general, (4)...

Will the Democratic Party win the ME-01 House seat?

Seven of eight agents converge tightly between 93-96%, with strong consensus on the key evidence: Solid D Cook rating, D+11 PVI, 100% Democratic hold rate since 2008, incumbent running for reelection, weak Republican field. Agent 1 (50%) experienced a complete research failure and produced a meaningless default estimate that should be entirely excluded. Excluding Agent 1, the ensemble mean is...

Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?

Seven of eight agents converge strongly on 2-8% probability, with six agents at 2-3%. Agent 7 (50%) had a research failure and should be discarded entirely. The consensus is overwhelming and well-evidenced: under the new court-ordered Utah congressional map (upheld Feb 23, 2026), UT-02 is the successor to Blake Moore's old UT-01 covering northern Utah (Weber/Davis/Cache counties) with an R+38...

Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

All 8 agents converge tightly on 11-13% (σ=0.008), matching the market price of 11%. The evidence is well-researched and consistent: Republicans hold ~218-220 seats, the 200-204 range requires a 14-18 seat loss, which is plausible but represents just one 5-seat bin in a wide distribution. The Cook floor of 202 seats supports this range as plausible, but Trump's low approval...

Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat?

Seven of eight agents converge strongly on 93-96% probability. Agent 1 (50%) clearly failed its research (0 pages read) and should be discarded entirely. Excluding that outlier, the effective ensemble mean is ~94.6% with very tight agreement. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent across all functioning agents: R+14 PVI, 30-point victory margins, Solid R rating from Cook, 7 consecutive Republican...

Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat?

Seven of eight agents converge strongly on a very low probability (3-8%), with only Agent 1 (Gemini) at 50% due to a research failure (0 pages read, 0 confidence). Excluding this outlier, the remaining 7 agents have a mean of ~4.9% and median of 4%. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent across all functioning agents: Cook PVI D+15, Solid D...

Will the Republican Party win the PA-13 House seat?

Seven of eight agents converge strongly at 93-97% (Agent 1 at 50% is clearly a failed research run with 0 confidence and should be discarded entirely). The remaining seven agents found identical evidence: R+23 PVI, Solid R rating from Cook, Joyce winning 74.2% in 2024, Trump endorsement, no credible Democratic challenger, deeply rural district with no urban centers. This is...

Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat?

All 8 agents converge tightly on 94-99% probability (mean 96.5%, std dev 1.4%), representing near-perfect consensus. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent across all agents: R+30 PVI, 70.8% vote share in 2024, Solid R rating from Cook, no primary challenger, weak Democratic field. The only disagreements are minor calibration differences about how much tail risk to assign to black swan...

Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

All 8 agents converge on the same conclusion with remarkable consistency (range 4-8%, std dev 1.3%). Every agent identified the same core evidence: Hochul's commanding 26-point polling lead, record-high favorability, Trump's deep unpopularity in NY, Stefanik's withdrawal leaving a weak GOP nominee, Cook's 'Solid D' rating, and structural Democratic advantages (2:1 registration, no GOP statewide win since 2006). This is...

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?

Seven of eight agents converge tightly in the 3-7% range, with strong agreement on the key facts: (1) underlying Republican Senate odds are approximately 60-64% and declining from 68% a month ago, (2) a 11-15 point jump would be needed to reach 75%, (3) the political environment is trending against Republicans (Trump approval ~37-42%, ICE controversies, generic ballot D+4-6), (4)...

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

Discarding Agent 8 (failed research, 0 confidence), the remaining 7 agents cluster tightly at 85-89% with strong agreement on the ranking of risks. All identify deportation and admin rejoining as near-zero, trillionaire as low (5-8%), and baby as the primary risk (5-10%). The community discussion confirms this view ('might as well rename this will elon musk have another baby'). My...

Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?

All 8 agents converge tightly (3-9%, mean 6.25%) on a low probability, representing strong consensus. The key evidence is overwhelming: (1) Trump publicly defended Bondi as 'fantastic' - and only Trump can fire her; (2) historical base rate for AG departure within first year, let alone 6 weeks, is effectively 0%; (3) Bondi shows no signs of wanting to resign;...

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

7 of 8 agents cluster between 18-35% (mean ~28.6%), with only Agent 6 at 55% as a clear outlier whose reasoning doesn't justify the deviation. The core evidence is strong and specific: Kazakhstan announced Nov 6, 2025 but hasn't formally signed despite 3+ months and a high-level visit. The Polymarket clarification requires formal signing. The market dropped 11 points in...

Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Agent 3 (8%) misread the resolution date as Feb 28 instead of June 30, creating a misleading outlier. Excluding it, agents cluster 58-82% with mean ~68%. The market at 74.5% is supported by sibling market structure (40% threshold at 72% implies 30% should be higher) and the recent price jump suggesting new information. Grok 4 Heavy already at ~26% means...

Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: CDU leads polls by 3 points and is projected first, not second. For CDU to finish second, SPD must overtake them - plausible given SPD's historical outperformance in RLP and Schweitzer's popularity, but against the consistent polling trend. The ensemble mean (32.1%) essentially matches the market price (32.0%), and agents show moderate...

Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

7 of 8 agents converge on 55-70% range with similar evidence and reasoning. Agent 1 (12%) is a clear outlier likely misreading the situation. The question decomposes into P(vote occurs) × P(Schumer votes Yea | vote occurs). If a bipartisan deal passes, Schumer as lead negotiator votes Yea with ~90%+ probability. The key uncertainty is whether a deal happens by...

Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election?

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: D66 trails Hart voor Den Haag by 4 seats (8 vs 12) in the most recent polling, with the gap exceeding the margin of error. All agents identify the same evidence structure - strong polling evidence against D66, with only weak-to-moderate upside factors (national momentum, undecided voters, margin of error). The range...

Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

Six of eight agents produced substantive research and converged strongly on 22-28%, with two failed agents defaulting to 50% (pulling the mean up artificially). Excluding the two failed agents, the effective mean is ~26%, and the median of all agents is 28%. The consensus is remarkably strong: every substantive agent found the same core evidence — Durbin voted Nay on...

Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?

The well-researched agents (2, 3, 4, 6) who did the GDP level math all converge at 5-6%. Agent 8's higher estimate relies on a factual error about Q1 2025 being strong (it was weak). Agent 7 over-weights historical patterns without accounting for current mathematical constraints. The median of 7.5% is reasonable but the strongest evidence supports ~5-6%. At market price...

Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?

Six substantive agents converge on 72-80% (mean 75.8%). Two agents returned 50% due to research failures and should be excluded. All substantive agents agree on the key facts: Trump+Abbott endorsements, 9-candidate field requiring runoff, Yarbrough as front-runner, Binkley as main competitor. The disagreement is narrow — how much to discount for runoff risk. Historical Trump endorsement win rates (83%+) in...

Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

All 8 agents agree Camacho is the clear frontrunner with confirmed candidacy, incumbency, ruling coalition backing, and a 13-point polling lead. The price spike from 38% to 84.5% is explained by concrete developments (TSE confirmation + legal case dismissal). The main risk is a runoff scenario where he's below 50%, but even in a runoff he'd be favored given his...

Will Patty Murray vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

Agents unanimously found Murray's explicit opposition to the current bill and her Nay vote on cloture. They split on whether a compromise will be reached in time. The key insight is this is really two questions: will a vote happen, and will Murray support it. Her institutional role means she'd likely support any deal she negotiates, but the current impasse...

Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

All 8 agents agree Krishnamoorthi is favored (range 60-73%, mean 69%). The evidence is specific and verifiable: consistent double-digit polling leads across 10+ polls, massive fundraising advantage, and early voting already underway. The market at 56% implies near-parity which contradicts all available polling data. The strongest counter-arguments (Stratton momentum, Pritzker money, endorsement gap, undecideds) are real but insufficient to justify...

Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?

Seven of eight agents cluster tightly between 28-34%, with only Agent 1 (50%, failed research) and Agent 5 (45%) as outliers. Agent 5's higher estimate is based on claimed establishment endorsements (Wicker, Hyde-Smith, Kelly, Reeves) that no other agent corroborated - these may be from the 2024 cycle rather than 2026. The strongest evidence comes from Agents 2, 3, 7,...

Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?

7 of 8 agents agree on core facts: not nominated, no announced role, promotional incentive exists but is speculative. Agent 5 (82%) is a clear outlier with poorly sourced claims about promotional attendance patterns and should be heavily discounted. Removing Agent 5, the remaining 7 agents average ~33% with median 28%, very close to market price. The market dropped from...

Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

Agents split into two camps: those emphasizing hawkish signals (pause, inflation, BBVA guidance) at 28-42%, and those giving more weight to Heath's board dynamics revelation and BofA forecast at 45-50%. The ensemble mean of 41.5% vs market price of 49.5% suggests a potential edge on NO, but the edge is only ~6.5% and the confidence is very low (std dev...

Will the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) win the most gubernatorial elections in Bolivia in 2026?

Seven of eight agents converge strongly on MAS having very low probability (5-18%), with Agent 1 (50%) being an obvious outlier due to research failure (0 pages read). Excluding Agent 1, the mean drops to ~11.4% and median to ~8%. The consensus is overwhelming and well-evidenced: **Where agents agree (high reliability):** - MAS suffered catastrophic collapse in 2025 general elections...

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

All 8 agents converge tightly on 89-95% probability of a hold, with a mean of 92.9% and low standard deviation (1.8%). This is a strong consensus. Every agent identified the same core evidence: (1) CME FedWatch at 90-94% hold probability, (2) Fed held in January 2026 establishing a pause pattern, (3) strong January jobs report (130K vs 66K expected), (4)...

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Seven of eight agents cluster between 12-22%, with strong consensus on the key structural barriers. Agent 3 (Grok) is the outlier at 45%, driven by interpreting US pressure and the 28-point plan more aggressively. However, Agent 3's evidence is weaker on the critical resolution criteria distinction. **Where agents agree (high reliability):** - Russia's maximalist demands far exceed what Ukraine could...

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

AGENT AGREEMENT: Six agents with substantive research (Agents 3-8) show strong consensus at 30-38%, with four of six at 30-35%. Agents 1 and 2 produced no research and defaulted to 50% - these should be entirely discarded. The effective ensemble mean excluding failed agents is ~32.5%, with tight clustering. KEY CONSENSUS FINDINGS: (1) Russia explicitly refuses ceasefire before comprehensive political...