Predictions

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Six of eight agents cluster at 46-51% with two outliers at 56-58%. The median (48%) better represents informed opinion than the mean (50.1%). Key tension: Ohio's hard structural R+11 lean and Brown's recent 2024 loss vs. favorable midterm dynamics and current polling leads. The structural lean is more predictive than polls 8 months out. Critically, the Republican sibling market at...

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Agents split into two camps: those emphasizing SEIU's organizational capacity and opposition's revealed preference (62-72%) vs those emphasizing historical base rates and funding disparity (48-56%). The strongest specific evidence comes from Agent 2 (opposition behavior signals expected qualification) and Agent 6 (leverage/withdrawal risk). My estimate of 62% is marginally above market (59.5%) but the edge of ~2.5% is far below...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

7 of 8 agents agree at 97-99% that this market has already resolved YES. Agent 8 (2%) appears to be evaluating whether Tesla truly launched unsupervised FSD rather than whether the market resolves YES — a category error. The market resolved via UMA oracle on Jan 29, 2026 based on Tesla's Jan 22 Austin robotaxi announcement. Despite legitimate controversy (chase...

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

All 8 agents converge on 43-63% range, with 7 of 8 between 55-63%. The consensus is that this is genuinely competitive but NOT a clear Democratic lean. The strongest evidence comes from: (1) Expert forecaster consensus at Toss Up, (2) Collins' extraordinary 2020 overperformance which represents a systematic Maine polling bias, (3) Platner's severe scandal baggage. The market at 75%...

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

All 8 agents agree on the fundamental dynamics: Duggan is the decisive variable, he disproportionately hurts Democrats, and current three-way polls show James leading. The disagreement is purely about whether Duggan fades (historical norm) or persists (his unusual funding/backing suggests). Agents with the strongest specific evidence (3, 6, 8) cluster around 42-47%, weighting current polling. Agents weighting historical third-party fade...

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Agents split into three camps: historical-base-rate-heavy (24-25%, Agents 7-8), balanced (30-35%, Agents 2-4,6), and environment-heavy (45-50%, Agents 1,5). Agent 1 had no research and should be discarded. The strongest-evidence agents (2,3,4,6) converge around 30-35%. The market at 43.5% appears to be driven by Democratic enthusiasm and hype rather than fundamentals. Key facts: both Sabato and Cook rate this Likely Republican,...

Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Seven of eight agents with actual research converge on 40-52%, with strong consensus on key factors: Republican structural advantage in GA gubernatorial races offset by hostile midterm environment, open seat, and divisive GOP primary. Professional forecasters (Cook Toss-Up, Sabato Lean R) confirm genuine competitiveness. The market at 42.5% is very close to the informed agent median of ~44-45%. Agent 8's...

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Discarding Agent 1 (no research, 50% default), the remaining 7 agents cluster tightly between 26-36% with adjusted mean ~31%. All agents identified the same core dynamics: Collins trails Platner in polls but has a proven track record of outperformance, the national environment is hostile to Republicans, and the Democratic primary is the key variable. The ~4% edge over market price...

Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Seven of eight informed agents agree the national environment strongly favors Democrats. Discarding Agent 1 (no research) and down-weighting Agent 8 (underweighted clear evidence), the informed consensus clusters at 18-22%. The market at 18.5% is already efficiently priced near the bottom of this range. My estimate of 20% reflects slight upward adjustment for open-seat uncertainty and Democratic primary risk, but...

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Discarding Agent 1 (no research, 50% default), all 7 informed agents agree on the fundamental finding: no existing agreement meets the market's strict Article 5-equivalent standard, and all planned binding guarantees are conditional on a ceasefire that doesn't exist. The informed agent mean is ~14.9% with median ~12%. Agents 2 (7%), 3 (10%), 4 (12%), 5 (12%) had the strongest...

Maduro guilty of all counts?

Informed agents (2-5) cluster at 27-35%, while less-researched agents (1, 6, 8) push higher. Agent 1 had zero research and should be discarded. The core tension is between high federal conviction rates and the 'all counts' + timeline constraints. Hernandez all-counts SDNY conviction supports YES; Noriega partial conviction and tight timeline support NO. My estimate of 33% is slightly below...

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

All 8 agents converge on a low probability (10-17%), with strong consensus on the key dynamics. The evidence is remarkably consistent across agents: **Consensus findings (high reliability):** 1. H.R. 7008 passed House committee Jan 14, placed on Union Calendar Feb 3, but NO floor vote scheduled as of mid-March 2026 2. Trump endorsed at SOTU but action 'remains stuck' 3....

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Seven of eight agents (excluding Agent 3 which failed with 50%/0% confidence) show strong consensus in the 10-22% range, with most clustering around 12-17%. The consensus is built on robust, mutually reinforcing evidence: (1) 0% historical base rate - no Chinese model has ever held #1 on Chatbot Arena in 2+ years; (2) current Elo gap of 38-50+ points between...

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Five agents defaulted to 50% with zero confidence, polluting the ensemble. Among agents with actual estimates, the evidence-grounded ones (Agents 4, 8) correctly note the extreme rarity of secession referendums and absence of current campaigns. Higher estimates appear speculative without identifying a specific province or triggering mechanism. The market at 49% seems inflated - possibly driven by general anxiety about...

Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?

All 8 agents agree the probability is below the market price of 40%, ranging from 22-38% with a mean of 29.4%. The strongest evidence comes from Agents 2, 4, and 6 who found specific, recent (February 2026) official statements from India explicitly deprioritizing expansion. Agent 4's quote from India's Secretary (East) is particularly compelling as direct evidence against near-term expansion....

Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?

7 of 8 agents with completed research agree this is a strong Democratic seat (range 8-42%, but 6 of 7 are 8-25%). The outlier at 42% (Agent 6) appears to anchor to market price. The consensus evidence is overwhelming: Solid D rating from all three major forecasters, 15-point incumbent margin in 2024, no retirement signals, weak GOP challenger, favorable national...

Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Six of eight agents cluster between 24-33%, with two outliers (15% and 42%). The consensus view is that Hobbs is a vulnerable incumbent who nonetheless benefits from strong structural advantages: incumbency (70-75% base rate), midterm dynamics favoring the out-party (Democrats), and a likely weak GOP nominee in Biggs. The strongest evidence comes from agents who found specific polling (NPI Feb...

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?

All 8 agents agree the primary risk is health/mortality, not political removal. The disagreement is only on magnitude. The strongest agents (1, 4, 5, 8) properly anchor on actuarial data showing ~13-14% mortality over the remaining period, then add small adjustments. Agents 6 and 7 appear to over-weight speculative health concerns without specific evidence of deterioration. The sibling market at...

Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Agents split into two camps: 4 agents at 44-48% emphasizing the 0/7 historical base rate and structural GOP gubernatorial advantage, and 4 agents at 53-55% emphasizing current environmental factors (Trump disapproval, midterm dynamics, open seat, recent Dem wins). Both camps have legitimate evidence. The historical base rate is real but comes from a different Georgia (less competitive) and mostly with...

Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Agents split into two camps: structural-lean bulls (62-67%) and candidate/environment bears (43-48%), with moderates at 55%. The high-end agents over-rely on base rates without adequately accounting for the specific circumstances: an unpopular outgoing GOP governor (worst approval in America), an exceptionally strong Democratic candidate with 3-4x fundraising advantage, tariffs hurting Iowa's core agricultural economy, and midterm dynamics. The low-end agents...

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

All 8 agents agree on a slight Republican edge (52-58%), driven by incumbency and fundraising advantages partially offset by Trump's unpopularity and midterm dynamics. Five agents landed at exactly 52%, suggesting the true probability is near 52-53%. However, the edge over the 48.5% market price is only ~4.5%, which is marginal. The conflicting approval ratings (Morning Consult 51% vs Emerson...

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

All 8 agents agree on the fundamental dynamics: Ohio's strong Republican structural lean vs. midterm headwinds and a strong Democratic challenger in Brown. The tight agent range (55-62%) and consensus on Cook 'Lean R' rating suggest the true probability is in the high 50s to low 60s. However, the edge over market price (57.5%) is only ~1.5 percentage points -...

Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

All five informed agents (2,3,4,7,8) converge on 55-65% range with mean ~59.6%. The core math is clear: Liberals at 169, need 172, have two safe by-elections and one coin-flip (Terrebonne). The Erskine-Smith resignation risk is real but partially mitigated by apparent coordination with Liberal leadership. The 12-14 point national polling lead helps in Terrebonne but doesn't make it safe -...

Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Discarding Agent 1 (no research, default 50%), the remaining 7 informed agents converge around 30-38% with a mean of ~32%. All agents identify the same core dynamics: Jones trails in polls but has Trump's endorsement, Jackson has massive spending advantage, and high undecideds make the race fluid. The 2018 Cagle precedent (LG lost runoff) and the judicial block on Jones'...

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

Six agents with substantive research (excluding Agents 1 and 7 who failed) converge remarkably tightly around 38-45%, with a median of ~41%. This is notable because they all identified the same core tension: McKinney has the strongest progressive challenger profile seen in years (Justice Democrats' first endorsement in 4 years, Sanders, Tlaib, local Black establishment consolidating behind him, Hollier dropping...

Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Six of eight agents produced substantive research and converged strongly on 83-88% probability. Two agents (1 and 8) failed their research and defaulted to 50%, which drags the ensemble mean down to 76.5% artificially. Excluding these failed agents, the effective mean is ~85.3% and the effective median is 85%. The evidence is remarkably consistent across all functioning agents: (1) Trump...

Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Six of eight agents conducted substantive research and converged strongly on 7-15% probability. Agents 1 and 2 failed their research and defaulted to 50%, which should be completely discarded - they had zero confidence and zero evidence. Excluding these two failed agents, the effective ensemble mean is ~11%, median ~11%, which aligns almost perfectly with the market price of 11.2%....

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Agents split into two coherent camps: those emphasizing structural/runoff advantages (56-65%) and those emphasizing historically terrible approval ratings (45-48%). Both arguments have merit. Agent 8's runoff logic is the strongest specific argument (Bass beats Raman or Pratt head-to-head with moderate voters), but Agents 2/3/5/6/7 correctly note that 32% favorable is historically near-fatal for incumbents. The ensemble mean of 51.6% essentially...

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

All 8 agents converge tightly (94-98%, mean 96.7%) with remarkably consistent evidence and reasoning. This is one of the strongest consensus cases I've seen. Key consensus findings: (1) 100% historical base rate across 58 cycles including extreme crises, (2) constitutional/statutory barriers requiring Act of Congress, (3) decentralized administration across 9,000+ jurisdictions making systemic cancellation practically impossible, (4) primaries already underway...

Will the Republican Party win the MA-06 House seat?

All 8 agents converge tightly on 3-6% probability (mean 4.4%, std dev 1.2%), representing exceptional consensus. Every agent identified the same core evidence: D+11 Cook PVI, Solid D rating from all major forecasters, 30-year Democratic hold surviving even 2010 wave, Biden winning by 27-31 points, and a midterm environment that favors Democrats (opposition party with Trump as president). The open...

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Agents are fundamentally split: low-end agents (32-45%) overweight unprecedented political dynamics and DOJ backfire narrative; high-end agents (68-72%) appropriately weight the strong historical base rate but may underweight genuine uncertainty. The ensemble mean of 56% is an artifact of averaging divergent views rather than a consensus estimate. The median (61.5%) is more informative. I pull toward market price because: (1)...

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Seven of eight informed agents cluster tightly at 18-28% (mean ~23%), with the 50% outlier having failed research. The structural case for NO is strong: no viable no-confidence path exists, Sánchez has stated intent to serve until 2027, smaller parties have no incentive to trigger elections they'd lose, and even snap elections leave him as caretaker PM. While corruption scandals...

Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat?

All 8 agents agree this is an extremely safe Republican seat with probability ranging 1-7%. The six most evidence-grounded agents cluster at 1-3%. The district's R+17 PVI and 36-point margin in 2024 make a Democratic win virtually impossible under any plausible scenario. Even the strongest Democratic wave in modern history (2018) saw no district this red become competitive. The market...

Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat?

All 8 agents agree this is one of the safest Republican seats in the country, with estimates ranging from 93-98% (extremely tight range, std dev only 1.8%). The evidence is overwhelming and consistent across all agents: R+21 Cook PVI, Solid R rating from all major forecasters, 71.6% win margin in 2024, 60+ years of unbroken GOP control, incumbent running for...

Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

All 8 agents are in strong consensus, ranging from 93-97% with a mean of 95.4% and very low standard deviation (1.3%). Every agent identified the same core evidence: 50-year Republican winning streak, extreme partisan lean (R+25-40), Hageman as strong frontrunner with Trump endorsement, Cook Solid R rating, no credible opposition. The only disagreements are minor calibration differences around how much...

Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat?

All 8 agents are in near-perfect consensus (96-99%, mean 97.25%) that Democrats will win IL-01. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent: 90+ years of continuous Democratic control, D+18 PVI, 32-point margin in 2024, Solid D rating, majority-minority urban district in Chicago's South Side. No agent found any credible threat. The only downside risks mentioned are extreme tail events (death, scandal,...

Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat?

All 8 agents agree this is an extremely safe Republican seat with probability ranging 1-7%. The six most evidence-grounded agents cluster at 1-3%. The district's R+17 PVI and 36-point margin in 2024 make a Democratic win virtually impossible under any plausible scenario. Even the strongest Democratic wave in modern history (2018) saw no district this red become competitive. The market...

Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat?

All 8 agents agree this is one of the safest Republican seats in the country, with estimates ranging from 93-98% (extremely tight range, std dev only 1.8%). The evidence is overwhelming and consistent across all agents: R+21 Cook PVI, Solid R rating from all major forecasters, 71.6% win margin in 2024, 60+ years of unbroken GOP control, incumbent running for...

Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

All 8 agents are in strong consensus, ranging from 93-97% with a mean of 95.4% and very low standard deviation (1.3%). Every agent identified the same core evidence: 50-year Republican winning streak, extreme partisan lean (R+25-40), Hageman as strong frontrunner with Trump endorsement, Cook Solid R rating, no credible opposition. The only disagreements are minor calibration differences around how much...

Another Canada election called by June 30?

Excluding the failed Agent 1 (50%), the remaining 7 agents cluster tightly between 15-22% with median 17%. The corrected ensemble mean (~17.7%) is extremely close to market price (16.5%), leaving no actionable edge. All agents agree on the key facts: explicit PM denial, functioning Parliament, viable non-election path to majority, and narrow time window. The 2021 Trudeau snap election backlash...

Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

Seven of eight agents estimate 12-32% (mean ~19%), with strong consensus on key facts: multiple failed attempts, active leadership opposition, $1.1B revenue barrier, 5-15% historical base rate, and no committee action on any repeal bill. The outlier (Agent 2 at 41%) relies on theoretical industry influence arguments contradicted by observed legislative failures. The market at 49% is dramatically overpriced relative...

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Agents are fundamentally split: low-end agents (32-45%) overweight unprecedented political dynamics and DOJ backfire narrative; high-end agents (68-72%) appropriately weight the strong historical base rate but may underweight genuine uncertainty. The ensemble mean of 56% is an artifact of averaging divergent views rather than a consensus estimate. The median (61.5%) is more informative. I pull toward market price because: (1)...

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Agents split into two camps: those weighting historical norms (62-68%) and those weighting unprecedented circumstances (15-40%). The strongest evidence comes from Agents 5, 6, 7, and 8 who identified specific, verifiable blockers: (1) Warsh not formally nominated as of Feb 27, (2) Sen. Tillis blocking confirmation, (3) Senate Democrats also blocking, (4) only 32% Kalshi odds of confirmation before May...

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Seven of eight informed agents cluster tightly at 18-28% (mean ~23%), with the 50% outlier having failed research. The structural case for NO is strong: no viable no-confidence path exists, Sánchez has stated intent to serve until 2027, smaller parties have no incentive to trigger elections they'd lose, and even snap elections leave him as caretaker PM. While corruption scandals...

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?

Six of seven substantive agents estimate 5-28%, with the strongest-evidence agents (3, 5, 6, 7) clustering at 5-18%. The key facts are verifiable and consistent: 87.4% leadership review win, no challenger, explicit refusal to resign, strong base support (+70 net favorability among CPC voters), and only 10 months remaining. The 67% historical base rate for defeated Conservative leaders departing is...

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

All 8 agents agree this is unlikely, ranging 4-18% with median 13.5%. The strongest agents (7 at 4%, 5 at 6%) found the most concrete evidence: Trump's own recent actions (NDAA signing, sanctions extension) directly contradict recognition. The de facto vs de jure distinction is analytically decisive — Trump's proposals don't even propose what the market requires. The market at...

Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: (1) EU designated IRGC Jan 29, 2026, creating pressure; (2) UK government confirmed preparing NEW legislation but explicitly said it will NOT be fast-tracked; (3) No bill introduced as of late Feb 2026; (4) Existing Terrorism Act 2000 cannot accommodate state military organs; (5) UK already has FIRS enhanced tier as alternative....

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

All 7 agents converge tightly (12-16%, std dev 1.7%) on Republican House retention probability around 13-14%. This is one of the strongest consensus readings possible. The evidence is clear and mutually reinforcing: (1) historical base rates strongly favor the opposition party in midterms, (2) Republicans' narrow majority makes them structurally vulnerable, (3) the complementary Democratic market at 82% is consistent...

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

All 8 agents converge tightly (15-22%, std dev 0.021) on El-Sayed being an underdog in 3rd place. The evidence is specific and verifiable: Emerson poll shows him at 16% vs McMorrow 22%, he has the weakest general election numbers, progressive vote is split with McMorrow, and he lost his only prior statewide primary by 22 points. Sanders endorsement and 38%...

Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

All 8 agents converge on a probability well below the market price of 17.5%, with a tight range of 4-14% and mean of 10.1%. This is strong consensus. The evidence is specific, recent, and verifiable: multiple February 2026 polls consistently show Raffensperger at 8-10%, a declining trajectory from 15% in November 2025. He faces structural headwinds - 73-74% Trump-aligned electorate,...