Predictions

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?

Discarding Agent 1 (failed research) and Agent 2 (93% - clearly misread the underlying price level), the remaining 6 agents cluster at 23-38% with median ~24.5%. The sibling market structure is the strongest evidence: under-60% at 76% but under-55% at only 21% implies informed traders see a hard resistance zone around 55-60%, consistent with the structural Republican Senate advantage (53-47...

Fact Check: is L.A. U-Haul attack perp a U.S. Citizen?

Seven of eight agents with meaningful research converge on 10-22% probability, with strong consensus on the key dynamics. Agent 5 (72%) is a clear outlier that over-weighted the historical base rate (>90% of domestic attackers are citizens) while under-weighting the critical resolution mechanism: this market doesn't ask WHETHER he's a citizen, it asks whether citizenship will be CONFIRMED by official...

Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31?

All 8 agents agree on the core factual situation and identify the same sequential hurdles. The spread (52-82%) comes from different weighting of Assembly vote passage probability and court warrant issuance likelihood. Agent 3's low estimate (52%) is partly driven by the irrelevant 4.7% executive imprisonment base rate (wrong reference class - this is pretrial detention, not post-conviction). Agent 1's...

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

Discarding Agent 8 (failed research, 0 confidence), the remaining 7 agents cluster tightly at 85-89% with strong agreement on the ranking of risks. All identify deportation and admin rejoining as near-zero, trillionaire as low (5-8%), and baby as the primary risk (5-10%). The community discussion confirms this view ('might as well rename this will elon musk have another baby'). My...

Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?

All 8 agents converge tightly (3-9%, mean 6.25%) on a low probability, representing strong consensus. The key evidence is overwhelming: (1) Trump publicly defended Bondi as 'fantastic' - and only Trump can fire her; (2) historical base rate for AG departure within first year, let alone 6 weeks, is effectively 0%; (3) Bondi shows no signs of wanting to resign;...

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

7 of 8 agents cluster between 18-35% (mean ~28.6%), with only Agent 6 at 55% as a clear outlier whose reasoning doesn't justify the deviation. The core evidence is strong and specific: Kazakhstan announced Nov 6, 2025 but hasn't formally signed despite 3+ months and a high-level visit. The Polymarket clarification requires formal signing. The market dropped 11 points in...

Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Agent 3 (8%) misread the resolution date as Feb 28 instead of June 30, creating a misleading outlier. Excluding it, agents cluster 58-82% with mean ~68%. The market at 74.5% is supported by sibling market structure (40% threshold at 72% implies 30% should be higher) and the recent price jump suggesting new information. Grok 4 Heavy already at ~26% means...

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?

Seven of eight agents (excluding Agent 1 which failed) converge strongly on 11-18% probability, with the median at 14% matching the market price. Agent 1 (50%) is clearly an artifact of a failed research process and should be discarded entirely. The remaining agents show remarkable consensus on the key evidence: (1) January 2026 was 2.9%, continuing a 5-month acceleration trend;...

Will Canada’s February 2026 unemployment rate be 6.5%?

7 of 8 agents estimate below market price, with strong consensus on key facts: January's 6.5% was artificially driven by labor force exit, not employment strength. The precision requirement (landing in 6.45-6.54% band) combined with recent 0.3pp monthly volatility makes exact repetition unlikely. Trading Economics professional forecast of 6.7% suggests upward bias. Sibling market analysis (summing to 209%) confirms systematic...

Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: CDU leads polls by 3 points and is projected first, not second. For CDU to finish second, SPD must overtake them - plausible given SPD's historical outperformance in RLP and Schweitzer's popularity, but against the consistent polling trend. The ensemble mean (32.1%) essentially matches the market price (32.0%), and agents show moderate...

Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

7 of 8 agents converge on 55-70% range with similar evidence and reasoning. Agent 1 (12%) is a clear outlier likely misreading the situation. The question decomposes into P(vote occurs) × P(Schumer votes Yea | vote occurs). If a bipartisan deal passes, Schumer as lead negotiator votes Yea with ~90%+ probability. The key uncertainty is whether a deal happens by...

Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by March 2?

All 8 agents converge on 15-23% with identical evidence and reasoning. The core issue is that Paxton leads the underlying Polymarket by ~45 points, and the only realistic catalyst (Trump endorsement of Cornyn) appears unlikely given Trump's stated preference to back winners and reluctance to endorse. Early voting starting Feb 17 further reduces the window for dramatic shifts. The market...

Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election?

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: D66 trails Hart voor Den Haag by 4 seats (8 vs 12) in the most recent polling, with the gap exceeding the margin of error. All agents identify the same evidence structure - strong polling evidence against D66, with only weak-to-moderate upside factors (national momentum, undecided voters, margin of error). The range...

Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

Six of eight agents produced substantive research and converged strongly on 22-28%, with two failed agents defaulting to 50% (pulling the mean up artificially). Excluding the two failed agents, the effective mean is ~26%, and the median of all agents is 28%. The consensus is remarkably strong: every substantive agent found the same core evidence — Durbin voted Nay on...

Will Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings?

All 8 agents agree on the core thesis: Dropbox has a near-perfect recent beat streak with substantial margins, the consensus bar is modest, and the SaaS model provides predictability. The two lower agents (82-83%) over-weight sentiment signals like insider selling and stock price weakness, which are poor predictors of binary earnings outcomes. The higher agents (90-91%) correctly emphasize the mechanical...

Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

7/8 agents agree Feb 2026 will be 4th or lower, with the primary disagreement being confidence level rather than direction. Agents 1 and 7 directly accessed the resolution source and found Feb 2026 at 108, which ranks 6th. Even skeptical agents note that reaching 3rd place (126) would require an unprecedented ~0.18°C jump from current trajectory during La Niña/neutral conditions....

Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?

The well-researched agents (2, 3, 4, 6) who did the GDP level math all converge at 5-6%. Agent 8's higher estimate relies on a factual error about Q1 2025 being strong (it was weak). Agent 7 over-weights historical patterns without accounting for current mathematical constraints. The median of 7.5% is reasonable but the strongest evidence supports ~5-6%. At market price...

Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?

Six substantive agents converge on 72-80% (mean 75.8%). Two agents returned 50% due to research failures and should be excluded. All substantive agents agree on the key facts: Trump+Abbott endorsements, 9-candidate field requiring runoff, Yarbrough as front-runner, Binkley as main competitor. The disagreement is narrow — how much to discount for runoff risk. Historical Trump endorsement win rates (83%+) in...

Will Jessica Steinmann be the Republican Nominee for TX-08?

All 8 agents agree Steinmann is the clear frontrunner, ranging from 73-85% probability. The evidence is remarkably consistent across agents: (1) Cook Political Report's 'hers to lose' assessment, (2) dominant endorsement portfolio from the entire Texas GOP establishment, (3) Super PAC support from Winning For Women. Agent 2 (85%) appears slightly overconfident by underweighting the 6-way field/runoff risk and Jensen's...

Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?

All 8 agents agree Carter is the heavy favorite (range 85-96%, mean 87.6%). The core case is strong: 12-term incumbent, Trump endorsement, fragmented weak opposition (Gomez banned/registration suspended), and >95% historical base rate for incumbents. The main risk is the declining vote share trend (82→71→65%) potentially pushing him below 50% with 9 challengers, triggering a Texas runoff. However, even in...

Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

All 8 agents agree Camacho is the clear frontrunner with confirmed candidacy, incumbency, ruling coalition backing, and a 13-point polling lead. The price spike from 38% to 84.5% is explained by concrete developments (TSE confirmation + legal case dismissal). The main risk is a runoff scenario where he's below 50%, but even in a runoff he'd be favored given his...

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?

All 8 agents agree directionally that NVIDIA is highly likely to beat, with estimates ranging from 89% to 93% (very tight 4pp range, std dev 1.5%). This is strong consensus. The core evidence is robust and multiply-verified: (1) 90%+ historical beat rate over 20 quarters, (2) 12 consecutive quarter beat streak, (3) strong Q4 guidance of $65B ± 2% revenue...

Will Patty Murray vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

Agents unanimously found Murray's explicit opposition to the current bill and her Nay vote on cloture. They split on whether a compromise will be reached in time. The key insight is this is really two questions: will a vote happen, and will Murray support it. Her institutional role means she'd likely support any deal she negotiates, but the current impasse...

Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

All 8 agents agree Krishnamoorthi is favored (range 60-73%, mean 69%). The evidence is specific and verifiable: consistent double-digit polling leads across 10+ polls, massive fundraising advantage, and early voting already underway. The market at 56% implies near-parity which contradicts all available polling data. The strongest counter-arguments (Stratton momentum, Pritzker money, endorsement gap, undecideds) are real but insufficient to justify...

Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?

Seven of eight agents cluster tightly between 28-34%, with only Agent 1 (50%, failed research) and Agent 5 (45%) as outliers. Agent 5's higher estimate is based on claimed establishment endorsements (Wicker, Hyde-Smith, Kelly, Reeves) that no other agent corroborated - these may be from the 2024 cycle rather than 2026. The strongest evidence comes from Agents 2, 3, 7,...

Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?

All 8 agents converge tightly (20-28%, σ=3%) around ~22-24%. The evidence is remarkably consistent: Russia has a foothold in southern Hryshyne but the target intersection is in the center, ISW shows a multi-day stall with repelled assaults, advance rates have slowed, and Ukrainian defenses are holding. The market has already corrected sharply from 36.5% to 25% over 4 days, pricing...

Will Russia enter Khatnie by February 28, 2026?

All 8 agents converge tightly (4-9%, mean 6.1%, median 6.0%, std dev 1.6%) on a low probability. The consensus is remarkably strong: every agent found the same core evidence - ISW reports Russian forces attacking 'near Khatnie' daily but consistently failing to advance in the Velykyi Burluk direction. Key consensus findings: (1) 3+ months of failed attacks near Khatnie, (2)...

Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?

7 of 8 agents agree on core facts: not nominated, no announced role, promotional incentive exists but is speculative. Agent 5 (82%) is a clear outlier with poorly sourced claims about promotional attendance patterns and should be heavily discounted. Removing Agent 5, the remaining 7 agents average ~33% with median 28%, very close to market price. The market dropped from...

Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

Agents split into two camps: those emphasizing hawkish signals (pause, inflation, BBVA guidance) at 28-42%, and those giving more weight to Heath's board dynamics revelation and BofA forecast at 45-50%. The ensemble mean of 41.5% vs market price of 49.5% suggests a potential edge on NO, but the edge is only ~6.5% and the confidence is very low (std dev...

Will the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) win the most gubernatorial elections in Bolivia in 2026?

Seven of eight agents converge strongly on MAS having very low probability (5-18%), with Agent 1 (50%) being an obvious outlier due to research failure (0 pages read). Excluding Agent 1, the mean drops to ~11.4% and median to ~8%. The consensus is overwhelming and well-evidenced: **Where agents agree (high reliability):** - MAS suffered catastrophic collapse in 2025 general elections...

Will the NYC nurses strike end by February 28, 2026?

All 8 agents independently found the same critical facts and all estimated below market price (range 28-62%, mean 45.4% vs market 75.4%). The evidence is specific, verifiable, and strongly directional: (1) 73% rejection of the last deal shows massive gap between offer and demands, (2) no talks even scheduled with 12 days left, (3) NYP is the most anti-union system...

Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?

Agents split into two camps: three Claude Opus agents (4,5,6) at ~40-42% based on strong increment trend analysis showing 3.7-3.8 stable increments making it likely to exceed 70; three other agents (2,3,8) at 55-62% emphasizing declining flu A. The Opus agents had the strongest specific evidence — they identified the backfill effect (weekly rate of 2.2 but cumulative increment of...

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

All 8 agents converge tightly on 89-95% probability of a hold, with a mean of 92.9% and low standard deviation (1.8%). This is a strong consensus. Every agent identified the same core evidence: (1) CME FedWatch at 90-94% hold probability, (2) Fed held in January 2026 establishing a pause pattern, (3) strong January jobs report (130K vs 66K expected), (4)...

Will Trump say "Antifa" in February?

Agents 1 and 2 had research failures and should be discounted. The remaining 6 agents range from 35-55%, splitting on how much weight to give the SOTU. The strongest evidence comes from Agent 4 and Agent 8 who verified multiple transcripts showing no February mentions. The SOTU is a real but uncertain catalyst - Trump's speeches there are scripted and...

Will Trump say “Low IQ” by February 28?

Agents split into three camps: high-confidence YES (Agents 1,4,7 at 85-99%) based on specific evidence claims that may predate market creation; moderate YES (Agents 2,5,8 at 72-75%) based on base rates; and near-coin-flip (Agents 3,6 at 48-55%) based on transcript checking finding nothing in February. The base rate argument is compelling - ~1 use/week over 12 days gives roughly 82%...

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Seven of eight agents cluster between 12-22%, with strong consensus on the key structural barriers. Agent 3 (Grok) is the outlier at 45%, driven by interpreting US pressure and the 28-point plan more aggressively. However, Agent 3's evidence is weaker on the critical resolution criteria distinction. **Where agents agree (high reliability):** - Russia's maximalist demands far exceed what Ukraine could...

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

AGENT AGREEMENT: Six agents with substantive research (Agents 3-8) show strong consensus at 30-38%, with four of six at 30-35%. Agents 1 and 2 produced no research and defaulted to 50% - these should be entirely discarded. The effective ensemble mean excluding failed agents is ~32.5%, with tight clustering. KEY CONSENSUS FINDINGS: (1) Russia explicitly refuses ceasefire before comprehensive political...