Predictions

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Seven of eight agents converge tightly at 3-12%, with six at 3% and one at 6%. Agent 1 (50%) should be completely disregarded as it explicitly failed to conduct any research (0 searches, 0 pages read). Excluding this outlier, the effective ensemble mean is ~4.7% with very low dispersion. The consensus is overwhelming and well-evidenced: 1. ZERO base rate: No...

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

7 of 8 agents with completed research converge on 2-12% probability (mean ~5% excluding the failed agent). The evidence is overwhelming and specific: the only federal vehicle (S.4214) was introduced by minority-party progressives with zero cosponsors into a Republican Congress that is actively pushing the opposite direction. The Trump administration released a framework to preempt state AI restrictions just 5...

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

Seven of eight agents with substantive research converge strongly on 4-12% probability (Agent 1 at 50% had zero research and should be discarded entirely). The consensus is remarkably tight: Agents 3-8 cluster at 4-8% with high confidence (0.75-0.88). Agent 2 at 12% is the highest informed estimate. Key consensus findings across all informed agents: 1. Supreme Court struck down IEEPA...

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Seven of 8 agents with actual research agree on the core facts: V3 hasn't flown, tight timeline, multiple sequential successes needed. The well-researched agents cluster 20-42% with median ~32%. Agent 1 (50%) had zero research and is discarded. The critical path requires Flight 12 success → ocean landing → Flight 13 success → ocean landing → catch attempt, all in...

Canada recession before 2027?

All 8 agents converge tightly (38-46%, σ=3.2%) around the market price of 42%. The core analysis is unanimous: Q4 2025 contraction sets up a possible technical recession if Q1 2026 is also negative, but most forecasters expect Q1 to be slightly positive. The Q4 weakness was inventory-driven (domestic demand +2.4%), January 2026 was flat, and major banks project 1-2% growth...

Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?

AGENT AGREEMENT: Six of eight agents cluster between 25-32% (Agents 2,3,4,6,8 at 25-32%, Agent 5 at 42%). Two outliers pull the mean up: Agent 1 (50%) had zero research and should be discarded entirely, and Agent 7 (48%) weighted the insider reports and Chalamet's 'Yes. Yes.' marriage intent statement very heavily. Excluding the zero-research Agent 1, the informed mean drops...

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Agent 8 found the strongest specific evidence: Somaliland counts per market clarification and has pledged to join. This creates a clear pathway to YES resolution. However, the edge over market price (69%) is only ~3%, which is below the 5% threshold for trading. The agents are genuinely split (48-88% range, 12.3% std dev) reflecting real uncertainty about whether pledges/announcements will...

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

All 8 agents converge on 78-88% with strong consensus on key facts: strikes occurred, Khamenei killed but succession completed, regime still functioning after 4 weeks, no ground invasion planned, historical base rate ~80-85%. The strongest agents (3, 5, 6) found specific US intelligence assessments confirming regime intact. The unprecedented leadership decapitation is the main downside risk but the regime has...

Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?

Agents fundamentally disagree on the referendum's likelihood of passing, creating a 50-point range (42%-92%). The high-R agents weight the Roanoke College poll and early voting; the low-R agents weight prediction market prices and Cook's 'Favored to Pass' rating. My calculation using blended referendum probabilities yields 55-66% for R, with the median around 60%. However, the sibling D market at 63%...

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?

Seven of eight agents converge at 88-92% based on strong fundamentals: Solid D Cook rating, 15-point incumbent win margin, weak GOP field, favorable national environment. Agent 7 (55%) identified a legitimate redistricting threat from DeSantis's April 2026 special session. This risk is real but constrained: FL-14 is a secondary target, the timeline is extremely compressed (maps must be drawn, passed,...

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

7 of 8 agents converge at 99% probability. Agent 8 (Grok) returned 50% due to research failure (0 confidence, incomplete search) and should be entirely discounted - it's a non-informative default. The ensemble mean of 92.88% is artificially dragged down by this single failed agent; the true informed consensus is 99%. The evidence is overwhelming and independently verified across agents:...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

7 of 8 agents converge at 99%, with only Agent 8 (grok-4) at 85% due to weighing the 'not truly unsupervised' criticism more heavily. However, Agent 8 appears to have missed or underweighted the critical fact that the market has ALREADY RESOLVED YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, with the dispute window closed over 7 weeks ago. This...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred - Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in confirmed US-Israeli airstrikes. This is verified by Iranian state media, multiple independent international news organizations, US and Israeli officials, and a successor has already been appointed. The market has been at 100% for at least 7 consecutive days....

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

7/8 agents cluster between 20-26%, with strong consensus that Rodríguez is consolidating power effectively in the near term. The strongest evidence (Agents 1-3) shows military loyalty, US cooperation, PSUV institutional control, and no credible threats. However, the 9-month window to December 2026 includes the constitutional deadline, potential US policy shifts, and ongoing internal balancing challenges. Agent 6 at 12% underweights...

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

7 of 8 agents independently arrived at 99% probability after conducting separate research. Agent 1 (50%) had a research failure with 0 searches and 0 pages read, making it a complete outlier that should be disregarded. The remaining 7 agents all found the same overwhelming evidence: Operation Epic Fury commenced February 28, 2026, involving thousands of U.S. kinetic strikes directly...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

7 out of 8 agents (all except Agent 1, which failed to complete research) converge on 98-99% probability. The key finding is unanimous among functioning agents: this market has ALREADY RESOLVED YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22 announcement of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The dispute window closed weeks ago. The market has...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

7 out of 8 agents independently found overwhelming, mutually corroborating evidence that Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in US-Israeli airstrikes. The evidence includes confirmation from Iranian state media itself, all major international news organizations, a declared 40-day mourning period, and the appointment of a successor (Mojtaba Khamenei). Agent 1 (GPT-5.2) returned 50% due to a research failure (0...

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

7 of 8 agents independently found overwhelming evidence of an active US-Iran war beginning February 28, 2026 (Agent 1 failed to complete research). The evidence is extraordinarily strong - confirmed by CENTCOM, White House, Reuters, BBC, Wikipedia, Britannica, ISW, and numerous other sources. Operation Epic Fury involved ~900 strikes in the first 12 hours, 7,800+ total strikes, Iranian retaliation against...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

7 of 8 agents converge on 99% probability. The market has already resolved YES via the UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 launch of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The dispute window has closed and the resolution is final. The market has been at 100% for 7+ weeks. Agent 6 (Grok) is the sole...

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

All 7 substantive agents (excluding Agent 1 which failed to research) converge on 62-74% probability for Democrats, with remarkable agreement on the key evidence: Hobbs leads all polls, incumbency advantage, midterm dynamics favor Dems, Biggs is a weak general election candidate, but Arizona leans R structurally and Hobbs has mediocre approval. The agents differ mainly in how they weight these...

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Discarding Agent 8 (incomplete research), the remaining 7 agents range from 62-95%. The three most thoroughly researched agents (3, 4, 6) all converge around 93-95%, finding specific evidence of imminent Houthi war entry and active regional conflict. Agents 2 and 5 are lower (62-72%) primarily because they weight current Houthi restraint more heavily. However, the question asks about a 3+...

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Seven of eight agents independently arrived at 99% probability with high confidence. Agent 8 (50%, 0 confidence) had a research failure and should be discarded entirely. The consensus is overwhelming: the U.S. launched kinetic strikes on Iranian territory starting February 28, 2026, Iran retaliated, and the conflict is ongoing. This clearly meets the resolution criteria ('any U.S. military kinetic strike...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

7 of 8 agents (excluding the failed Agent 8 and the outlier Agent 7) converge on 97-99% probability. The critical finding is that this market has ALREADY RESOLVED YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 announcement of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The dispute window has closed, making the resolution final. The market...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

7 out of 8 agents independently arrived at 99% probability, with the 8th agent (Agent 8) producing an incomplete/failed analysis at 50% with 0 confidence - this is clearly a data artifact and should be discarded. The remaining 7 agents found identical evidence: Khamenei was killed Feb 28, 2026 in US-Israeli strikes, confirmed by Iranian state media, multiple international outlets,...

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

All 8 agents independently arrived at exactly 99% probability with high confidence (0.93-0.99). Every agent found the same overwhelming evidence: Operation Epic Fury began February 28, 2026 with joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, over 8,000 US military targets struck, Iranian retaliatory missile attacks on US bases, confirmed US casualties, and ongoing escalation as of March 22, 2026. This is not...

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

All substantive agents agree on the directional case for Democrats (historical patterns, low Trump approval, unpopular war) but also agree the 2.5-year time horizon severely limits confidence. The ensemble mean of 56.5% exactly matches the market price, and removing the failed agent and outlier barely changes it (56.2%). Agent 7 explicitly would bet Republican at this price, while Agents 2-6...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

7 out of 8 agents (all except Agent 4) converge on 97-99% probability, recognizing that this market has ALREADY RESOLVED YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026. The resolution was based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 announcement of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The market has been at 100% for 7+ weeks with no active dispute. Agent 4 (3%)...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred: Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in US-Israeli strikes, confirmed by Iranian state media (which declared 40 days of mourning), multiple top-tier international outlets (Reuters, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, NPR, Forbes, CNBC), and government officials (Trump, Netanyahu). A successor (Mojtaba Khamenei) has already been named and...

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously estimate 99% probability. The evidence is overwhelming: a full-scale U.S.-Iran war began on February 28, 2026, with U.S. kinetic strikes on Iranian territory and Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on U.S. bases across multiple countries. This clearly meets the market's definition of 'military engagement involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of...

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

All 8 agents agree on the fundamental direction (Republican favored) with disagreement only on magnitude. The strongest evidence comes from structural factors (R+13 lean, 4/4 recent wins, expert ratings of 'Likely R') which multiple agents independently verified. The market at 61.5% appears to underweight these structural advantages. The main counterargument - midterm headwinds under unpopular Republican president - is real...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

All 8 agents agree this market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle on ~January 29, 2026, based on Tesla's January 22, 2026 launch of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. The range of estimates (97-99%) reflects only minor disagreement about the infinitesimal probability of an unprecedented UMA oracle reversal. Agent 8 provided the most balanced evidence noting chase cars and...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred - Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, confirmed by every major international news outlet and Iranian state media itself. A successor has been appointed. This is not a forecast but a confirmation of a past event. The market is correctly priced at 100%. However, despite overwhelming...

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously estimate 99% probability. The evidence is overwhelming and independently verified across dozens of credible sources: the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, striking over 2,000 targets in Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, and Iran retaliated with missile attacks on U.S. bases in 6 countries. The conflict is ongoing on Day 21...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

All 8 agents agree this market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle around January 29, 2026, following Tesla's January 22, 2026 unsupervised robotaxi launch in Austin. The market has been at 100% for over 7 weeks. The only disagreement is minor - Agent 7 at 90% appears to have not fully weighted the fact that the market is already...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred: Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in confirmed US-Israeli airstrikes. This was verified by Iranian state media, every major international news outlet, the White House, and a successor has already been appointed. The market is correctly priced at 100%. There is zero actionable edge - the...

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?

All 8 agents converge on NO being heavily favored (range 10-25%, 6 of 8 at 10-18%). The structural case is strong: Newsom is still governor until January 4, 2027, has explicitly said he'll decide after midterms (leaving only ~6 weeks), and no modern presidential candidate has announced this early for a race 2+ years away while still serving as governor....

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously estimate 99% probability. The evidence is overwhelming and independently verified across dozens of authoritative sources: the 2026 Iran War began on February 28, 2026 with coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Iran has retaliated against US military bases, US service members have been killed, and the conflict is ongoing as of March 19, 2026. This clearly and...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: Tesla launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin on January 22, 2026, the UMA oracle resolved the market YES around January 29, 2026, and the market has been at 100% for 7+ weeks. The slight variation in estimates (95-99%) comes from Agent 7 giving more weight to the substantive controversy about whether Tesla's...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred: Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026, confirmed by every major international news organization and Iranian state media itself. A successor has already been appointed. The market is correctly priced at 100%. There is zero disagreement among agents on the core facts. The only reason not to...

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Agents split dramatically (12-68%) reflecting genuine uncertainty about an unprecedented situation. The two lowest agents (12%) anchor too heavily on historical base rates without adequately accounting for the 2026 US aggression pattern. The highest agent (68%) overweights the Maduro/Khamenei precedent without accounting for Cuba's different circumstances (island geography, no arrest warrant, stronger institutional resilience). The middle cluster (35-48%) is most...

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

All 8 agents agree on core facts but differ on weighting. Agent 7 (20%) found the strongest specific evidence - the limitation clause was removed from the updated plan and language shifted from 'limits' to 'remains/maintains.' The ensemble mean of 30% is inflated by Agents 4 and 5 (35-38%) who overweight private draft agreements without sufficiently discounting the public commitment...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

This market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle around January 29, 2026. The critical question is NOT whether Tesla truly launched unsupervised FSD, but whether the already-finalized market resolution will be reversed. 6 of 8 agents (Agents 1,2,3,5,6,7) correctly identified this as an already-resolved market and gave probabilities of 97-99%. Agents 4 and 8 appear to have analyzed the...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously assign 99% probability. The event has already occurred: Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by Iranian state TV, BBC, Reuters, CNN, Al Jazeera, and numerous other credible international outlets. A successor (Mojtaba Khamenei) has already been appointed by the Assembly of Experts. This clearly satisfies the resolution criteria of being...

Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: existing tokens don't count, DJT token is non-transferable, no new tradable token is announced. The disagreement is purely about weighting Trump's historical pattern vs. current evidence of restraint. The deliberate non-transferability of the DJT token is strong specific evidence that Trump's legal team is steering away from tradable tokens while he's president....

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

After excluding Agent 1 (who misunderstands resolution criteria by counting 2025 strikes), the remaining 7 agents cluster around 5-72% with most in the 17-52% range. The adjusted mean is ~32%. The core question is whether Houthis break 3+ weeks of restraint in 13 days. Strong evidence of deterrence (leadership decapitation fear, logistical exhaustion, Iran holding them in reserve) vs. genuine...

Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

All 8 agents agree Cooper is heavily favored with strong polling leads, fundraising dominance, and candidate quality advantage. The disagreement is only on degree (17-33% for Republicans). The median estimate of 21% aligns closely with the market price of 18.5%, and the Democrat sibling at 78% implies ~22% for all non-Democrat outcomes. With only ~1.5% edge above market, this falls...

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Seven of eight informed agents converge on the same critical finding: the market requires 0% on BOTH lease types, which has never happened in 55+ years of RGB history. Six agents cluster at 32-42%, with strong agreement on the key constraint. Agent 1 at 62% overweights board control; Agent 5 at 15% underweights Mamdani's unique position. The community discussion explicitly...

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

This market has already resolved to YES. The split among agents is not about what will happen but about whether the resolution was 'correct' in substance. Agents 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 (5 of 8) correctly identify that the market has already resolved YES via UMA oracle around January 29, 2026, and assign 97-99% probability. Agents 3, 7, 8 argue...

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred - Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by every major international news outlet and Iranian state media itself. A formal succession process was completed with Mojtaba Khamenei elected as the new Supreme Leader. This is not a forecast but a confirmation...

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

All 8 agents converge on 3-6% probability with remarkable agreement (std dev only 1.1%). This is one of the strongest consensus cases I've seen. The evidence is overwhelming and multi-layered: 1. REGULATORY IMPOSSIBILITY: California requires 50,000 supervised autonomous miles → driverless testing permit → commercial deployment permit. Tesla has logged 562 total miles since 2016 and ZERO since 2019. This...